Russian double-headed political variation： the prosperity of Putin era is over

　　The financial crisis gave Medvedev a chance to challenge Putin. In the past few weeks, Medvedev has completed the path of democratization that Russia has not taken in the past years. His new act is obviously at odds with Putin, who is famous for his iron fist style.

　　Text/Gong Quan

　　The first anniversary of Medvedev’s presidency of Russia, Russians have already suspected that the Mapp group is moving towards division. This suspicion came from the western world earlier, because there is almost no long-lasting "double-headed politics" in Russian political history.

　　In the past two months, Medvedev criticized Putin’s government twice in public for being too slow and inefficient in the economic crisis. These statements not only exposed the real economic situation in Russia to the world, but also pushed himself to the political front of Russia.

　　The prosperity of Putin’s era is over.

　　In the past nine years, Putin has been a hero of Russia and his authority is unshakable. Yeltsin also had such a golden age, although it was relatively short. The crisis in 1998 brought the status and prestige of then Russian President Yeltsin to the lowest point. Today’s financial crisis has led to demonstrations in many cities in Russia. The opposition pointed its finger at Putin, saying that Putin failed to cope with the crisis and asked him to take the blame and resign.

　　Deriagin, a Russian economist, believes that "the economic prosperity in Putin’s era has ended, and part of the reason for this situation is the financial crisis, but it is mainly because the Russian government has not adjusted its economic structure and reduced its dependence on oil in recent years".

　　The "oil economy" is the straw for Russians to get rid of the economic crisis in the 1990s, and it is also the magic weapon for prosperity in the Putin era. It made "Putinism" warmly welcomed, and it gradually evolved into a symbol of restoring the glory of the empire. Its singleness is suitable for Putin’s economic principle of "controllable management" and political principle of "democratic sovereignty", but it does not conform to the diversified economic development principle in the era of globalization.

　　During Putin’s eight years in power, oil export has provided capital for Russian economic development, and it has gradually become a locomotive for Russian economic development. However, over-reliance on the export of energy products to promote economic development has also laid a hidden danger for the Russian economy, which makes the Russian economy vulnerable to international economic fluctuations.

　　According to the data of Russian Ministry of Finance, from 2000 to 2007, Russia gained a total of 475.7 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves by rising oil prices, of which 72% was used for state finance and the rest was used for government current account expenditure.

　　However, due to the impact of the Wall Street financial crisis in the United States, the price of international futures crude oil fell rapidly, and the Russian capital market fluctuated violently. In November 2008 alone, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves shrank by 28.87 billion US dollars, and the ruble also depreciated rapidly.

　　At present, among the three major international credit rating agencies, except Moody’s, Russia’s foreign exchange market has a positive rating, and the other two S&P and Fitch have given negative ratings.

　　"Because the financial crisis is highly contagious to the global capital market and the real economy, it is difficult for Russia to be immune from the economic crisis, while the Russian economy is dominated by a single energy export, and it may face a more serious impact than other countries." Professor Wang Ning, an expert on Russian issues at Shanghai International Studies University, commented on China Newsweek.

　　At present, the price of Russian Urals crude oil is the main basis for the Russian government to make economic policies, but it also makes Russian economic policies contain many uncertainties. In 2009, the Russian government’s budget was calculated at an average price of $95 per barrel, and in 2011 it was $88.

　　However, on March 13th, new york international crude oil futures traded at $46.25 per barrel. This also gives people reason to worry that if this situation continues, the Russian government deficit will continue to expand. The economic stimulus plan formulated by the government cannot be unaffected.

　　Earlier, the British "Guardian" published a heavy news that Putin was considering stepping down. There are rumors that Putin is considering resigning as prime minister in order not to make himself the focus of public dissatisfaction.

　　Medvedev’s road to democratization

　　Since Medvedev was elected president of Russia, it has been predicted that he will only be in office for about 18 months, and then he will step down, paving the way for the current Prime Minister Putin to return to the presidency.

　　One of the most noticeable decisions after Medvedev took office was to go to war with Georgia. However, during the war between Russia and Georgia, people saw more Putin than Medvedev on TV.

　　But the financial crisis gave Medvedev a chance to challenge Putin.

　　"Our actions are too slow, which is unacceptable in times of crisis. The problem is not the disintegration of macroeconomics or global finance, but the action is not fast enough and the efficiency is not high. " On February 20, 2009, Medvedev publicly criticized the government’s performance in the economic crisis at a meeting in Irkutsk, the eastern Siberian city. Medvedev asked the Russian government to improve administrative efficiency and convey the economic plan to the Russian people more clearly and concretely.

　　According to the statistics of the Russian Federal Statistical Office, the industrial production value of Russia fell by 16% in January, reaching a record high. The CPI is still as high as 13.9%.

　　While expressing his dissatisfaction with the government, Medvedev also started a series of actions of "changing blood" by the government.

　　Due to dissatisfaction with the local government’s actions in the economic crisis, Medvedev removed the posts of governors of four Russian states, all of which were nominated by Putin, and the newly appointed governors also included non-ruling party members. Medvedev hoped to restructure the local economy through the method of "changing blood".

　　Local government affairs are an important symbol of Putin as a "real prime minister". Russia’s political tradition is that the local chief executive is appointed and removed by the president, and local affairs are handled by the president’s office. However, Putin signed a decree on the eve of leaving office as president, stipulating that the annual report of the local chief executive should be submitted to the government first, and the prime minister should make an evaluation result before submitting it to the president.

　　Regarding this personnel change, Medvedev made an "early warning" before. He once pointed out in a televised speech that the Kremlin will not turn a blind eye to officials who are "incompetent, lazy and dereliction of duty".

　　According to the ITAR-TASS news agency, on March 13th, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appointed young Ye Linna Cisco Linnik as the new Minister of Agriculture to replace Gordeyev. Prior to this, Gordeyev had served as Minister of Agriculture for nearly 10 years.

　　Ye Linna Cisco Linnik is a CEO with a double degree in medicine and business management, a typical elite outside the political circle. According to Russian media reports, Medvedev’s new candidate has been well received by Russian industrialists. Ye Linna Cisco Linnik will therefore become the first female agriculture minister of the Russian government.

　　In the past few weeks, Medvedev has completed the path of democratization that Russia has not taken in the past years.

　　He vetoed the Duma’s proposal to expand treason; Resume the operation of the Russian Human Rights Council and appoint new candidates; It is required to improve prison conditions and encourage prisoners to use electronic handcuffs (which look like bracelets and can determine the location of prisoners) instead of custody; Lower the threshold of the Duma, give more power to smaller political parties, meet with independent media representatives and appoint opposition figures.

　　On March 10th, Medvedev presided over the working meeting of the Russian Anti-Corruption Commission for the first time, and made the fight against corruption the focus of his work. On the same day, he also signed a five-year draft administrative reform of the Russian government, aiming at improving the administrative efficiency of the government.

　　For Russians with liberal ideas, they think that with the passage of time, the president who has never served in military service is opening up his own new political path and taking a more liberal route than his predecessor.

　　They haven’t split yet.

　　However, under the current economic situation, Russia needs Mapo’s cooperation more than ever to stabilize economic and social development. The reality also shows that "Mapp combination" continues to play a role.

　　"There may be cracks in the political relationship between Mapp, but it hasn’t split yet. Because there is no obvious conflict between Mapp under the current conditions. " Robert Cutler, a Russian expert at Carreton University, told China Newsweek.

　　Timakov Wa is Medvedev’s press spokesman. Whenever the media asks her about the differences between Medvedev and Putin, she always gives the same answer, and her answer is the same as what Putin said at first: the working relationship between the president and the prime minister is just as stipulated in the Constitution, and their rights and responsibilities are clearly defined.

　　At present, there is no report about Putin’s "counterattack" against Mei. After Medvedev expressed dissatisfaction with the Russian government’s economic actions, the Russian government actively took measures, on the one hand, to introduce the measures currently implemented in Russia more clearly, on the other hand, to increase the implementation of economic policies.

　　On March 11th, after introducing a series of economic measures taken by the Russian government to the coal miners of state-owned coal mining companies, Putin said at the meeting between the government and the regional development committee that the Russian government’s economic assistance to the region would rise to 300 billion rubles (about 8.57 billion US dollars). He asked local governments to conscientiously perform their duties and make good use of every penny to prevent repeating previous mistakes.

　　Russians are increasingly unable to judge who is in charge of decision-making. According to a survey conducted in March this year, 12% of Russians believe that Medvedev has the final say, and another 34% believe that Putin still plays a major role in Russian affairs. In addition, half of people think that Putin and Medvedev are equally divided in power sharing. ★

Editor: Wang Yuxi