The consequences of Trump’s light start are unpredictable. The US government has attracted public anger and rebelled.
On July 24th, in Washington, D.C., Maurice Obst Feld (third from left), chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, gave a speech at the press conference of 2018 External Risk Report. The International Monetary Fund urges cooperation to solve global imbalances, and warns global economies that persistent external imbalances may aggravate trade tensions and lead to faster tightening of the financial environment, posing a threat to the global economy. Xinhua News Agency reporter Yang Chenglin photo
On August 8, according to the website of CNN, the United States announced a list of 25% tariffs on $16 billion of goods imported from China on Tuesday. This marks the latest escalation of the trade war between the two largest economies in the world. The 279 items in this list include motorcycles, odometers and antennas, and the effective date of the tariff increase is August 23rd.
The consequences of lightly starting the war are unpredictable.
Mamstrom, the EU Trade Commissioner, wrote on the Financial Times website that the threat of a global trade war was coming.
The world economy is facing severe challenges. As the only superpower and the largest economy in the world, the United States plays an important role in the world economy.
International organizations are deeply worried about the actions of the United States. The International Monetary Fund warned that the trade war between the United States and other countries in the world may reduce the global economic growth rate by 0.5% by 2020, and the global GDP will be lost by about 430 billion US dollars. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also warned that if the tariff cost of China, the United States and Europe is increased by 10%, it will lower the global GDP by 1.4%.
Internationally renowned professional institutions and economic and trade experts are pessimistic about the trend of the world economy. Fitch Ratings International estimates that a trade war involving tariffs on goods worth $2 trillion may reduce the global economic growth rate from 3.2% to 2.8% in 2019. Greg Dako, an economist at Oxford Economic Consulting, estimates that if the United States imposes a 10% tariff on another $400 billion of imports from China and China imposes a 25% tariff on all American imports, the global economic growth rate will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points.
The international media are generally worried about the terrible consequences of the trade war. Sputnik published a commentator’s article, severely condemning the unilateral protectionism of the United States and warning that the trade conflict between the United States and China may trigger a global economic downturn. The British "Guardian" stressed that the trade war provoked by the US government will lead to bad consequences and affect other countries. The website of CBS believes that once the trade war worsens, the situation will be difficult to clean up. According to an article on the website of the Independent, Trump announced that protectionism would bring great prosperity after he took office as the president of the United States, which made economists panic again. The cycle of revenge, economic pain, public anger and dishonesty in the 1930s seemed to emerge from the darkness again, just like the ghost of trade war in the past.
Worst of all, confidence in the global market, which is more valuable than gold, has been severely hit. Not long ago, at the meeting of the European Central Bank held in Sintra, Portugal, the most authoritative decision-makers in the world believed that the trade war brewing between the world’s largest economies was depressing corporate confidence and might force central banks to lower their outlook. The British newspaper The Guardian quoted the research results of Oxford Economic Research Institute as saying that the increase in uncertainty and risk brought by the United States’ tariff increase will affect business confidence and investment, especially cross-border investment. The US approach will affect the economic growth of China, the United States and other regions.
In a recent survey conducted in Reuters, nearly 3/4 of 150 analysts believe that trade protectionism will have a serious negative impact on global economic growth next year. They come to this conclusion on the basis that trade barriers have been raised and confidence has deteriorated.
Break the rules and disturb the world.
Paul krugman, the Nobel laureate in economics, published an article in The New York Times, USA, which was very straightforward: the scale and motivation behind the Trump administration’s tariff increase — — Obviously deceptive national security reasons — — It’s the latest trick This move is equivalent to rejecting the rules of the game we created.
The EU even bluntly criticized the United States for its "disregard of international law".
Francis Fukuyama, a political scientist at Stanford University in the United States, recently published an article "The Shaken Postwar International Order" in Japanese Daily News. The article said that the protectionist tariff policy of the Trump administration in the United States showed a trend of starting a trade war with major countries. Based on the rule of law, free trade, democracy and other rules, the "liberal international order" established after World War II is shaking. The article said that in the past 50 years, the United States has formulated and supported the international order based on the principle of liberalism. Today, the biggest threat to this order is President Trump. Trump is waving a protectionist stick and undermining the international order.
Lamy, former Director-General of WTO, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Japan’s Daily News that "the trade war in the United States is an anachronism". Lamy said that there were also trade frictions when he was the Commissioner in charge of trade affairs of the European Commission more than ten years ago. But there is no precedent for this "trade war" provoked by the Trump administration. It is against WTO rules to restrict imports on the grounds that national security is threatened.
The website of the Australia East Asia Forum recently published an article by Peter Robertson, Dean of the Business School of the University of Western Australia and Professor of Economics, entitled "Rewriting the rules may cause world trade to fall apart". According to the article, the purpose of the WTO is to provide a stable external environment for the survival and development of enterprises, alleviate the impact of hostile lobbying groups and political populism, and at the same time limit the practice of countries using trade policies as diplomatic weapons. However, with the political mood turning to nationalism, the WTO and the liberal economic order are facing increasing challenges. Now, the Trump administration is using economic policy as a means to deal with international relations in a way that runs counter to the WTO.
Faiz, former ambassador of Bangladesh to China and chairman of Bangladesh Institute of International Strategic Studies, said that the United States has now become a destroyer of global free trade and fair trade, and the protectionist policies adopted by the United States are undermining the global trade order.
The international media is filled with dissatisfaction with the United States.
Japan’s Sankei Shimbun pointed out that the U.S. government’s series of trade protection measures were strongly opposed by its allies. The tough protectionist trade policy of the United States is an important reason for disrupting the world trade order.
The Russian newspaper Kommersant commented that the Trump administration’s announcement that it would impose additional tariffs on China’s goods was a reneging and irresponsible performance. The move of the United States has opened the valve of trade protectionism, which is not conducive to the development of global trade liberalization.
The Cuban Debate website reported that the United States threw out a list of tariffs on China’s goods, which was a new unilateral action that threatened global trade.
Go one’s own way and miscalculate
Peter Robertson published an article saying that the Trump administration’s "rewriting the rules" openly opened the door for nationalism and protectionism, and believed that this was an acceptable way to handle international relations, which damaged the credibility of the United States.
Robert Kagan, a famous American commentator on current affairs, said sharply not long ago that the United States was a "super rogue power" and tried to bend the world to his will by his own strength.
At the just-concluded G20 meeting, French Finance Minister Bruno lemerre strongly criticized the trade conflict between the US and Europe, saying that the Trump administration’s unilateral tariff policy was based on the "law of the jungle".
As the French "Echo" website article said, US President Trump bargained on the international stage. Previously, he was increasing his financial wealth; Now, he is consolidating his political capital. The method is to force other countries to make concessions.
Lamy holds the same view. He pointed out that Trump believes that shaking the whole system can change the status quo. "To get satisfactory results, two people (two countries) must sit at the negotiating table." His calculation is to threaten each other with protectionism, and those who come to Washington to demand that the United States take back its mandate are bound to shed some blood.
Lamy said that this is a cruel political means that can only be seen in the Middle Ages, and it is not easy to succeed. People can’t negotiate with a gun to their heads.
Peter Robertson said that in Trump’s so-called plan to restore the American economy and the global leadership of the United States, his overbearing approach was a miscalculation.
John McCain, a famous American politician, is more pessimistic about the future of the United States under Trump. The article entitled "John McCain warns of the end of the era of" the United States dominates the world order "published on the website of the US Stars and Stripes not long ago said that McCain was worried that during Trump’s presidency, the United States was going further and further on the wrong road, which means that the leading position of the United States on the world stage may end.
Attract public anger and rise up against it
With regard to the harm that the United States will do to other countries if it vigorously pursues protectionist policies, Upatyayi, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, pointed out that the affected countries should not sit idly by, but stand firm and take corresponding measures.
On July 31st, representatives of automobile exporting countries from the European Union, Canada, Spain, South Korea and Japan held a meeting in Geneva. Many participants said that they are considering a series of measures to counter the United States, including calling for the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Trade Organization and imposing retaliatory tariffs on American goods. This shows that, just in case, the "anti-American alliance" formed by these automobile manufacturing countries will continue to fight for the trade friction that the United States may provoke.
French President Macron warned that "economic nationalism" would punish everyone, including the United States. "This is the most wrong way — — Respond to the existing international trade imbalance through destruction and economic nationalism. Economic nationalism means war, which those people did in the 1930s (during the Great Depression of 1929-1933). " He said.
Countries have begun to take action.
Since the United States has violated WTO rules by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, WTO members, including Russia, the European Union, India, Canada, Mexico and Norway, have resorted to the WTO accordingly. According to the rules of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, the two parties to the dispute will hold consultations in the next step. If the consultations fail, they can submit to the WTO to set up an expert group to hear the case. However, the disadvantage is that it takes a long time, usually about two years.
Counter-measures of various countries have also been released.
According to a report by RIA Novosti on August 5, Russia announced that the import tax rate will be raised to 25% to 40% for several kinds of freight vehicles, road construction equipment, oil and gas equipment, optical cables, metal processing and rock drilling tools produced in the United States. This is in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs previously imposed by the United States.
According to the website of India Express reported on August 4, India’s previously postponed measures to impose higher tariffs on some American imports will take effect on September 18. Angry at Washington’s refusal to grant India a new tariff exemption, New Delhi decided in June to raise import duties on some American products such as almonds, walnuts and apples from August 4, but later postponed this move. According to the report, as the world’s largest importer of American almonds, India decided in June to raise the import tax on this commodity by 20%, and together with the European Union and China, it retaliated against the US move to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum. India also plans to impose a 120% tariff on imports of American walnuts, which is by far the most severe action taken against the United States.
According to Reuters, the list published by the Canadian government lists more than 250 kinds of goods, and the tax began on July 1, totaling 16.6 billion Canadian dollars (about 12.6 billion US dollars). Canadian Foreign Minister Christia freeland stressed that this was Canada’s "most violent trade action since World War II" and that "we will not escalate (trade war), but we will not back down".
Americans can’t sit still. Recently, Eric Gasetti, Mayor of Los Angeles, USA, took a delegation to visit Asia urgently. Eric Gasetti solemnly declared that LA will continue to open its doors to China. He even directly called on leaders from all over the United States to take measures to vigorously promote foreign cooperation. "Doing business is generally planned according to the length of 10 years, but Washington seems to only plan things within 10 hours or even 10 minutes. In the Trump administration ‘ Serious ’ In the case of damaging the reputation of the United States, leaders from all over the United States should strengthen cooperation with investment partners. We hope to see a blue ocean ahead, and our ship is stronger than before, although the waves are bigger. I believe that we can work together with our partners to cross these waves, even if there is some seasickness. "