The State Council Press Office held a press conference at 10 am on Friday, July 15th, 2022, and invited Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, to introduce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2022 and answer questions from reporters.
The picture shows the press conference. (photo by Liu Jian)
Shou Xiaoli, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Council Information Office:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the press conference of the State Council Information Office. Today, we continue the routine release of economic data. We invited Mr. Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, to introduce the national economy in the first half of 2022 and answer your questions of interest.
Now, first of all, please let Mr. Fu Linghui make an introduction.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department:
Good morning, friends from the media. According to the usual practice, I will first report the main economic indicators and the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year, and then answer your concerns.
The picture shows Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department. (photo by Xu Xiang)
Effectively cope with the impact of unexpected factors, the national economy stabilized and rebounded.
Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe, and domestic epidemics have frequently spread, which has obviously increased the adverse effects, and the economic development is extremely unusual. Unexpected unexpected factors have brought serious impacts, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased significantly in the second quarter. Faced with an extremely complicated and difficult situation, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, all localities and departments thoroughly implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, intensified macro-policy adjustment, and effectively implemented a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy. The epidemic rebound was effectively controlled, the national economy stabilized and rebounded, the marginal demand for production improved, the market price was basically stable, the people’s livelihood security was strong and effective, the high-quality development trend continued, and the overall social situation remained stable.
In the first and second quarters, the economy resisted pressure and achieved positive growth.
Major economic indicators fell deeply in April. Faced with the increasing downward pressure, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council made scientific decisions, made timely and decisive policies, insisted on not engaging in "flood irrigation", implemented the policies and measures of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Government Work Report, launched a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy in accordance with the clear overall thinking and policy orientation, and held a national video conference to deploy and stabilize the economic market. The policy effect showed rapidly. The decline of major economic indicators narrowed in May, the economy stabilized and rebounded in June, and the economy achieved positive growth in the second quarter. According to preliminary accounting, the GDP in the first half of the year was 56,264.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% at constant prices. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 2,913.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%; The added value of the secondary industry was 22,863.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 30,486.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%. Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29,246.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry in the second quarter was 1,818.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; The added value of the secondary industry was 12,245 billion yuan, up by 0.9%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 15,183.1 billion yuan, down by 0.4%.
Two, the summer grain harvest, stable growth of animal husbandry.
In the first half of the year, the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 4.5% year-on-year. The total output of summer grain in China was 147.39 million tons, an increase of 1.434 million tons or 1.0% over the previous year. The agricultural planting structure has been continuously optimized, and the planting area of cash crops such as rapeseed has increased. In the first half of the year, the output of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat was 45.19 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year, of which the output of pork, beef and mutton increased by 8.2%, 3.8% and 0.7% respectively, and the output of poultry meat decreased by 0.8%. Milk production increased by 8.4%, and poultry and eggs production increased by 3.5%. In the second quarter, the output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, of which pork increased by 2.4%. At the end of the second quarter, the number of live pigs was 430.57 million, down 1.9% year-on-year, of which 42.77 million were fertile sows. 365.87 million pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 8.4%.
Third, industrial production stabilized and rebounded, and high-tech manufacturing developed rapidly.
In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year. In terms of three categories, the added value of mining industry increased by 9.5% year-on-year, manufacturing industry increased by 2.8%, and electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 3.9%. The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 6.2 percentage points faster than that of all industries above designated size. In terms of economic types, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year; Joint-stock enterprises increased by 4.8%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan invested enterprises decreased by 2.1%; Private enterprises increased by 4.0%. In terms of products, the output of new energy vehicles, solar cells and mobile communication base station equipment increased by 111.2%, 31.8% and 19.8% respectively.
In the second quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year on year. Among them, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 2.9% in April; The growth rate in May turned from negative to positive, with an increase of 0.7%; In June, it increased by 3.9%, 3.2 percentage points faster than last month and 0.84% higher than last month. In June, the purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing industry was 50.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The expected index of production and operation activities of enterprises was 55.2%, up by 1.3 percentage points. From January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%.
Four, the service industry gradually recovered, and the modern service industry grew better.
In the first half of the year, the added value of the service industry increased by 1.8% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services and financial industry increased by 9.2% and 5.5% respectively. In the second quarter, the added value of service industry decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. In April, the service industry production index decreased by 6.1% year-on-year; The decline in May narrowed to 5.1%; In June, it turned from falling to rising, with an increase of 1.3%. From January to May, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 4.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than that in January-April. In June, the business activity index of service industry was 54.3%, up 7.2 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry situation, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, postal services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries is located in a high boom zone of more than 55.0%. From the market expectation, the expected index of service business activities was 61.0%, up 5.8 percentage points from last month.
Five, the market sales have improved, and the retail sales of basic living goods have increased rapidly.
In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 21,043.2 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year. According to the location of business units, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 18,270.6 billion yuan, down by 0.8%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 2,772.6 billion yuan, down by 0.3%. By consumption type, retail sales of commodities reached 19,039.2 billion yuan, up by 0.1%; Catering revenue was 2,004 billion yuan, down 7.7%. The consumption of basic life increased steadily, and the retail sales of grain, oil, food and beverages in units above designated size increased by 9.9% and 8.2% respectively. The national online retail sales reached 6.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 5,449.3 billion yuan, up 5.6%, accounting for 25.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. In the second quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 4.6% year-on-year. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April decreased by 11.1% year-on-year; The decline narrowed to 6.7% in May; In June, it turned from falling to rising, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.53%.
Six, investment in fixed assets continued to grow, and investment in high-tech industries and social fields increased rapidly.
In the first half of the year, China’s investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 27,143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In terms of fields, infrastructure investment increased by 7.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 10.4%, and real estate development investment decreased by 5.4%. The national commercial housing sales area was 689.23 million square meters, down by 22.2%; The sales of commercial housing reached 6,607.2 billion yuan, down by 28.9%. By industry, investment in the primary industry increased by 4.0%, investment in the secondary industry increased by 10.9%, and investment in the tertiary industry increased by 4.0%. Private investment increased by 3.5%. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2%, of which investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 23.8% and 12.6% respectively. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, the investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 28.8% and 28.0% respectively; In the high-tech service industry, the investment in scientific and technological achievements transformation service industry and R&D design service industry increased by 13.6% and 12.4% respectively. Investment in social fields increased by 14.9%, of which investment in health and education increased by 34.5% and 10.0% respectively. In the second quarter, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 4.2% year-on-year. Among them, it increased by 1.8% in April, accelerated to 4.6% in May, and further picked up to 5.6% in June. In June, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.95% month-on-month.
Seven, the import and export of goods grew rapidly, and the trade structure continued to be optimized.
In the first half of the year, the total import and export volume of goods was 19,802.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. Among them, exports were 11,141.7 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; Imports reached 8,660.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. Import and export balance, with a trade surplus of 2,481.2 billion yuan. The import and export of general trade increased by 13.1%, accounting for 64.2% of the total import and export, up by 2.1 percentage points over the same period of last year. The import and export of private enterprises increased by 13.6%, accounting for 49.6% of the total import and export, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the same period of last year. The import and export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 4.2%, accounting for 49.1% of the total import and export. In June, the total import and export volume was 3,765.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Among them, exports were 2,207.9 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0%; Imports reached 1,557.8 billion yuan, up 4.8%.
Eight, consumer prices rose moderately, and the price increase of industrial producers continued to fall.
In the first half of the year, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year. By category, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 0.4%, clothing by 0.5%, housing by 1.2%, daily necessities and services by 1.0%, transportation and communication by 6.3%, education, culture and entertainment by 2.3%, medical care by 0.7% and other supplies and services by 1.2%. Among the food, tobacco and alcohol prices, the price of pork decreased by 33.2%, the price of grain increased by 2.4%, the price of fresh fruit increased by 12.0%, and the price of fresh vegetables increased by 8.0%. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 1.0%. In the second quarter, the national consumer price rose by 2.3% year on year. Among them, consumer prices in April and May all increased by 2.1% year-on-year; In June, it rose by 2.5% year-on-year, which was flat from the previous month.
In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 7.7% year-on-year, and in the second quarter it rose by 6.8% year-on-year. Among them, April and May increased by 8.0% and 6.4% respectively. In June, it rose by 6.1% year-on-year, which was flat from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the purchase price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 10.4% year-on-year, and rose by 9.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. Among them, April and May increased by 10.8% and 9.1% respectively. In June, it rose by 8.5% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Nine, the employment situation has improved, and the urban survey unemployment rate has dropped.
In the first half of the year, 6.54 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, and the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.7%, with an average of 5.8% in the second quarter. In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 6.1%; It dropped continuously in May and June, accounting for 5.9% and 5.5% respectively. In June, the unemployment rate of local registered population survey was 5.3%; The survey unemployment rate of foreign registered population is 5.8%, of which the survey unemployment rate of foreign agricultural registered population is 5.3%. The survey unemployment rates of people aged 16-24 and 25-59 were 19.3% and 4.5% respectively. The survey unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 5.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from last month. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide are 47.7 hours. At the end of the second quarter, the total rural labor force who went out to work was 181.24 million.
Ten, the steady growth of residents’ income, urban and rural residents per capita income ratio narrowed.
In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 18,463 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.7% year-on-year; Real growth of 3.0% after deducting the price factor. According to the place of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 25,003 yuan, a nominal increase of 3.6% year-on-year and a real increase of 1.9%. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 9787 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.8% and a real increase of 4.2%. From the source of income, the per capita wage income, net operating income, net property income and net transfer income of the national residents increased by 4.7%, 3.2%, 5.2% and 5.6% respectively in nominal terms. The per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.55, which was 0.06 lower than the same period of last year. The median per capita disposable income of the national residents was 15,560 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.5% year-on-year.
Generally speaking, a series of solid and stable economic policies have achieved remarkable results. China’s economy has overcome the adverse effects of unexpected factors and shown a trend of stabilization and recovery, especially in the second quarter, which achieved positive economic growth and stabilized the economic market. The results were hard-won. However, we must also see that the risk of stagflation in the world economy is rising, the policies of major economies tend to tighten, the external instability and uncertainties are obviously increasing, the impact of domestic epidemics has not been completely eliminated, demand contraction and supply shocks are intertwined, structural contradictions and cyclical problems are superimposed, market players are still difficult to operate, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery is unstable. In the next stage, we must adhere to the guidance of the Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the new era, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development efficiently according to the requirements of preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy and ensuring the safety of development, seize the critical period of economic recovery, pay close attention to the effectiveness of the economic package, continue to do the work of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", continuously increase the effectiveness and activation, and continuously consolidate the foundation of stable economic recovery. Thank you.
Shou Xiaoli:
Thank you, Director Fu Linghui, for your introduction. Let’s enter the question session. Please inform your news organization before asking questions.
Phoenix TV reporter:
We saw that the economic growth rate declined in the second quarter because of the severe impact of the epidemic. What do you think of this? Can China’s economy achieve sustained recovery in the next stage? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. In the second quarter, influenced by unexpected factors such as the complex evolution of the international environment and the impact of domestic epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy increased significantly. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, all localities and departments have effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, effectively implemented a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, effectively controlled the rebound of the epidemic, and the economic operation has generally stabilized and rebounded. Mainly has the following characteristics:
First, in the second quarter, China’s economy withstood the pressure to achieve positive growth. In April, under the condition that the epidemic situation hit and the main indicators declined year-on-year, all parties increased the intensity of steady growth, actively promoted the smooth flow of logistics, resisted the downward pressure on the economy, promoted the economic stabilization and recovery, and ensured the positive growth in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Industry and investment continued to grow. In the second quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7%, and the investment in fixed assets increased by 4.2%.
Second, from a monthly perspective, the economy has gradually picked up since May. Affected by unexpected factors in April, the main indicators declined significantly. With the overall improvement of epidemic prevention and control, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth were effective. In May, the economy stopped the downward trend in April, and the main economic indicators stabilized and rebounded in June. In terms of production, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, 3.2 percentage points faster than that of the previous month; The service industry production index also changed from a decrease of 5.1% in the previous month to an increase of 1.3%; In terms of demand, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in June changed from 6.7% in the previous month to 3.1%; Exports increased by 22%, 6.7 percentage points faster than last month. From a regional perspective, in June, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in 21 regions of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities rebounded from last month, accounting for 67.7%; The growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods above designated size in 30 regions rebounded from last month, accounting for 96.8%.
Third, employment prices are generally stable. The unemployment rate in urban surveys has dropped for two consecutive months. In the second quarter, the national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.8%. On a monthly basis, the urban survey unemployment rate was 6.1% in April, and dropped continuously in May and June. It dropped to 5.9% in May and 5.5% in June. From June, the urban survey unemployment rate of the employed population aged 25-59 was 4.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month; The survey unemployment rate of foreign agricultural registered population was 5.3%, down by 0.9 percentage points. Consumer prices rose moderately. In the second quarter, consumer prices rose by 2.3% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year in April and May, and rose by 2.5% in June, a slight increase from last month. China’s price increase is obviously lower than the level of more than 8% in European and American countries. In June, the CPI of the United States and the Eurozone increased by 9.1% and 8.6% respectively.
Fourth, foreign trade is better and foreign reserves are stable. Imports and exports grew rapidly. In the second quarter, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 8.1% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth. On a monthly basis, the total import and export volume of goods in April and May increased by 0.1% and 9.6% respectively. The growth rate accelerated to 14.3% in June. Foreign reserves were generally stable. In the second quarter, the balance of foreign exchange reserves remained stable at more than $3 trillion.
Fifth, the trend of industrial upgrading continues. New industries grew rapidly. In the second quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, which was 5 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size. The proportion of manufacturing industry continues to increase. In the second quarter, the added value of manufacturing accounted for 28.8% of GDP. It increased by 0.3 percentage points year on year. The modern service industry has developed rapidly. In the second quarter, the added value of information transmission software, information technology service industry and financial industry increased by 7.6% and 5.9% respectively, which was significantly faster than all service industries.
Generally speaking, China’s economy overcame multiple pressure challenges in the second quarter, and the main indicators stopped the downward trend and stabilized and rebounded. In the next stage, despite the unexpected factors such as the complex and severe international environment and the impact of domestic epidemic, the economic operation is facing more difficulties and challenges, but the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the characteristics of economic resilience, great potential and wide space are obvious. With a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth taking effect, the national economy is expected to gradually recover and maintain steady growth. Thank you.
CCTV reporter from the Central Radio and Television General Station:
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic and international environment has undergone complex changes. What are the characteristics of China’s economic operation? How to evaluate the economic trend in the first half of this year? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complicated and severe, the crisis in Ukraine has deepened and evolved, and domestic epidemics have occurred frequently, and unexpected factors have exceeded expectations. China’s economic operation has experienced certain fluctuations. The overall economic recovery in January and February was better than expected. In March and April, due to the impact of the international environment and domestic epidemic, the main economic indicators declined significantly. However, since May, with the effective overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth has been effectively implemented, the domestic epidemic prevention and control has generally improved, the economic operation has gradually stabilized and rebounded, and positive changes have increased significantly. Mainly has the following characteristics:
First, the economy has overcome difficulties and maintained growth. Since the beginning of this year, the international situation has been complicated and severe, and the world economic growth has slowed down obviously. The frequent occurrence of domestic epidemics has caused a serious impact on the stable operation of the economy. Especially in April, the downward pressure on the economy increased significantly. In response to this, all localities and departments, in accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, intensified macro-policy adjustment, and introduced a solid package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, which stabilized the economic market and promoted positive economic growth in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year, including 0.4% in the second quarter, which was achieved against the background of the decline of major production demand indicators in April and May. It should be said that it was not easy, reflecting the strong resilience of China’s economy.
Second, the price situation is generally stable. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the expansion of liquidity of major economies in the world and other factors, international commodity prices, especially food and energy prices, have remained high this year, which has increased the impact on domestic imported inflation. Under such conditions, China has stepped up efforts to ensure supply and price stability in the market, made a good job in grain and energy production, and ensured the overall stability of domestic market prices. In the first half of the year, consumer prices rose by 1.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of about 3% for the whole year. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 1% and remained basically stable. China’s price increase is obviously lower than the increase level of more than 8% in European and American countries, which is conducive to the smooth operation of the economy and the improvement of people’s livelihood.
Third, employment and people’s livelihood are guaranteed. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the employment pressure has suddenly increased this year, making it more difficult for residents to increase their income and ensure people’s livelihood. In response to outstanding problems, all aspects have continued to increase efforts to stabilize employment and strengthen the protection of people’s livelihood, and the results have gradually emerged. In the first half of the year, 6.54 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country. Since May, the national urban survey unemployment rate has changed its previous upward trend and dropped for two consecutive months. In June, the national urban survey unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%. Among them, the unemployment rate of the employed population aged 25-59 is 4.5%, which is basically the same as that in January. Residents’ income grew steadily. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents increased by 3% year-on-year, which was lower than that in the first quarter, but faster than the economic growth. Among them, the per capita net transfer income of the national residents increased by 5.6% year-on-year, which was 0.9 percentage points faster than the total income.
Fourth, the toughness of foreign trade import and export appears. Since the beginning of this year, the momentum of world trade growth has weakened, and the global manufacturing PMI new export order index has been below threshold for four consecutive months. However, China’s foreign trade import and export has maintained rapid growth despite the adverse effects of the tightening external environment and the short-term impact of the epidemic, which reflects the strong resilience of China’s foreign trade. In the first half of the year, China’s total import and export volume of goods increased by 9.4% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 13.2%. In June, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 14.3% year-on-year, 4.7 percentage points faster than last month.
Fifth, the transformation and upgrading situation continued. Although the external environment is complicated and severe, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is increasing, China’s economic innovation has continued to increase, and the trend of upgrading and development has not changed. New kinetic energy grew rapidly. In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2%, both of which maintained rapid growth. The retail sales of physical online goods increased by 5.6%, accounting for 25.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. Adjustment and optimization of economic structure. In the first half of the year, the added value of manufacturing industry accounted for 28.8% of GDP, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the same period of last year. The per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents was 2.55, down by 0.06 compared with the same period of last year. The green transformation continued to advance. In the first half of the year, the proportion of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 111.2% and 31.8% respectively.
Generally speaking, China’s economy maintained growth despite difficulties in the first half of the year, showing a trend of stabilization and recovery. However, the external environment is complex and severe, and the domestic economic recovery still faces many challenges. In the next stage, we should continue to coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in an efficient way in accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, promote the steady growth of a package of policies and measures, and promote sustained and healthy economic development. Thank you.
Reuters reporter:
I would like to ask, our economic growth in the first half of the year was 2.5%, which is still far from the target of about 5.5% this year. What do you think the recovery will be like in the second half of the year? Will we introduce some new measures to stabilize growth, especially in boosting consumption and private investment? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. In the first half of the year, affected by the complex and severe international environment and the impact of domestic epidemic, economic growth was affected to some extent. From the perspective of the whole year, with the joint efforts of all parties, it is not easy to maintain positive economic growth in the second quarter. From the next stage, the risk of global economic stagflation is rising, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in domestic economic recovery, but the basic characteristics of China’s strong economic resilience, great potential and long-term improvement have not changed. With the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, the economic operation is expected to gradually improve.
First, the economies of big countries are resilient. The epidemic has caused a great impact on the economy, but the scale of China’s economy is still considerable, and the advantages of long-term accumulation of solid material foundation and super-large market scale are obvious. In the first half of the year, the total economic output reached 56 trillion yuan, of which the added value of industry was close to 20 trillion yuan, the added value of service industry exceeded 30 trillion yuan, the total investment in fixed assets exceeded 27 trillion yuan, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods still exceeded 21 trillion yuan, although it declined. All these have increased our confidence and confidence in coping with various risk challenges.
Second, there is potential for demand recovery. From the perspective of investment, the steady investment has been continuously increased, the issuance and use of special bonds have been accelerated, major projects have been accelerated, and infrastructure investment has been accelerated. The key role of investment in steady growth is expected to increase. In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than that in January-May. From the leading indicators, the planned total investment of new projects in the first half of the year increased by 22.9% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid growth. From the perspective of consumption, with the situation of epidemic prevention and control improving, the offline consumption scene is gradually recovering, and with the efforts of promoting consumption policies, consumption is expected to continue to recover. From the perspective of foreign trade, China’s foreign trade import and export has strong resilience. At present, port logistics continues to advance, imports and exports in the Yangtze River Delta and other regions have recovered rapidly, and the port business environment has been continuously optimized, which has a good foundation for maintaining stability and improving quality of foreign trade. In May, China’s total import and export volume increased by 9.5% year-on-year, 9.4 percentage points faster than that in April; In June, imports and exports increased by 14.3% year-on-year, which was 4.8 percentage points faster than that in May.
Third, there is support for the recovery of production. From the perspective of industry, in May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size took the lead in turning from negative to positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and the growth rate accelerated to 3.9% in June. With the acceleration of enterprises’ resumption of work and production, the blocking points in the supply chain of the industrial chain have been gradually opened, and the driving role of key industries such as automobiles and electronics is expected to be further enhanced. Especially in the second quarter, the accelerated recovery of production in areas with severe epidemics will help support the steady growth of industry. In June, the manufacturing PMI returned to above the critical point, in which the expected index of production and business activities rose to 55.2%, indicating that the confidence of manufacturing enterprises continued to increase. From the perspective of service industry, with the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control situation, the production of service industry turned from decline to increase in June, and the production index of service industry increased by 1.3% year-on-year, especially in contact and aggregation industries. With the accelerated recovery of production and living order, the market demand for service industry is gradually picking up, the confidence of enterprises is restored, and the service industry is expected to be further improved. In June, the service industry PMI has risen to 54.3%, returning to the expansion range, in which the business activity expectation index reached 61%, rising for two consecutive months. From the perspective of transportation and logistics, logistics and transportation are gradually smooth, which is helpful to support the further recovery of production. In June, the prosperity index of the logistics industry was 52.1%, up 2.8 percentage points from last month.
Fourth, innovation and development add momentum. In recent years, China has deeply implemented the innovation-driven development strategy, vigorously promoted industrial transformation and upgrading, and effectively promoted the development and growth of new kinetic energy. Under the epidemic situation, the traditional industries have accelerated to the direction of digitalization, networking and intelligence, and the new kinetic energy of new industries has continued to maintain steady and rapid growth, which has continuously enhanced its supporting role for economic development and helped to promote sustained economic recovery. In the second quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, which was 5 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size; The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 7.6%, which was 7.2 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate.
Fifth, macroeconomic policies are guaranteed. Since the second quarter, faced with the downward pressure of the economy, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued 33 policies and measures to stabilize growth in six aspects in a timely manner, and all localities and departments acted quickly and effectively. In June, the State Council further strengthened its deployment and demanded that a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy be put into effect. Judging from the recent situation of economic operation, the investment in infrastructure has obviously accelerated, the consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles has rebounded significantly, the flow of logistics people has been smoother, the expected confidence of enterprises has gradually improved, and the policy of steady growth is exerting its strength. In the next stage, the policy effects such as large-scale tax refund, the issuance and use of special bonds, and increasing financial support for the real economy will continue to emerge, which will help promote sustained economic recovery and sound development.
Generally speaking, with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control situation and the emergence of policy effects, China’s advantages of large economy, wide market space, sufficient development resilience, many reform dividends and strong governance capacity will be further exerted, and the economy is expected to maintain its development trend. Of course, we should also see that there are still many external unstable and uncertain factors, and the triple pressure at home still exists. We still need to make unremitting efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market and promote sustained economic recovery. Thank you.
Central Radio and Television General Station Yang Guang reporter:
We noticed that the economy of some areas was greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year. What is the current recovery situation? In addition, on the whole, what is the operation of China’s regional economy? How do you evaluate it? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Indeed, since the first half of this year, the epidemic has had a great impact on the economic operation in some areas, but it should be noted that the impact of the epidemic is short-term and external, and will not change the general trend of coordinated regional economic development. Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, with the effective coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, China’s economy has gradually overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic and accelerated its recovery. Positive changes have taken place in the economies of some areas hit hard by the epidemic.
First, in the second quarter, the economies of most regions were basically stable. In terms of growth, in the second quarter, the GDP of 26 of the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) maintained growth, accounting for 83.9%. In terms of employment, the urban survey unemployment rate in 19 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the second quarter was lower than the national average, of which the urban survey unemployment rate in the western region was 5.5%, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than the national average. From the price point of view, prices rose moderately in most areas, and consumer prices in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) increased by less than 3% in the second quarter.
Second, the economic growth in the central and western regions is good. In the second quarter, the GDP of the central and western regions increased by 2.3% and 2% respectively, and the growth rate was faster than that of the whole country. Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, the growth in the central and western regions was faster than that in the eastern region. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the central and western regions increased by 7.3% year-on-year, which was 5.1 percentage points faster than that in the eastern region. The investment in fixed assets in the central and western regions increased by 10.7% and 8% respectively, which was 6.2 and 3.5 percentage points faster than that in the eastern region.
Third, some areas have been hit hard by the epidemic. Under the impact of the epidemic, the normal order of production and life has been affected to some extent, and the economy in some areas has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased in a short period of time. In the second quarter, the GDP of Shanghai and Jilin decreased by 13.7% and 4.5% year-on-year, and the urban unemployment rates in Shanghai and Jilin were 12.5% and 7.6%, which were significantly higher than the national level.
Fourth, the regional economies that have been greatly affected by the impact of the epidemic have accelerated their recovery. Although the economy of some areas was greatly affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, from a monthly perspective, with the overall improvement of epidemic prevention and control, enterprises resumed work and production, and the main economic indicators improved significantly in June. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shanghai and Jilin increased by 13.9% and 6.3% year-on-year, and decreased by 30.9% and 4.9% respectively last month. In terms of consumption, the retail sales of consumer goods above designated size in Jilin increased by 5.5% in June and decreased by 1.5% last month. In terms of employment, the survey unemployment rates in Shanghai and Jilin cities and towns decreased by 9.7 and 0.8 percentage points respectively compared with last month, indicating that the economic recovery in these areas which were hit hard by the epidemic was steadily accelerating.
Generally speaking, the economy in most areas of China is generally stable, the growth in the central and western regions is faster than that in the east, and the trend of coordinated regional development has not changed. Some areas have encountered temporary difficulties due to the epidemic, but under the action of various stable economic policies and measures, the economic operation has accelerated to recover. Of course, we should also see that the problem of unbalanced economic development in China is still outstanding, and the development gap between regions is large. In the next stage, we should continue to implement regional major strategies and regional coordinated development strategies in depth, narrow the regional gap and promote coordinated and sustainable economic development. Thank you.
Bloomberg News reporter:
We see that in today’s report, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.9% in June. According to my personal estimation, in fact, the indicators of many products have declined. I want to know, how is this 3.9% target achieved? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the epidemic, industrial production has declined in April, turned from decline to increase in May, and the growth rate has obviously accelerated in June. Judging from the output and added value of industrial products, we saw that the production of automobile industry rebounded obviously in June. Affected by the epidemic in the early stage, the industrial chain of the automobile industry in the Yangtze River Delta region has been affected to some extent. However, in the near future, with the gradual recovery of the economy in Shanghai and other regions, the production growth of the automobile industry has accelerated, both in terms of output and added value, which has obviously accelerated compared with last month, and played an important role in the rebound of industrial production throughout June. You just mentioned that some products have declined, but the output of most products has maintained growth. So overall, industrial production rebounded in June; From the structural point of view, the rebound of equipment manufacturing industry is more obvious, especially the rebound of automobile industry, which is more prominent for the whole industrial growth. With the economic recovery, other industries have also played a supporting role in the whole industrial growth. Thank you.
Cover journalist:
The unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 has reached a new high this year. Can you tell us more about the current employment situation of young people? What is the spokesman’s prediction of the employment situation in the next stage? Can the employment target of more than 11 million people be achieved this year?
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Everyone is very concerned about employment, which is the foundation of people’s livelihood. Since the beginning of this year, the complicated and severe international environment and the impact of domestic epidemic have had a certain impact on employment. Generally speaking, with the joint efforts of all parties, with the gradual recovery of the economy and the gradual implementation of various policies to stabilize employment, the trend of rising unemployment rate in urban surveys has been reversed. We can see that due to various factors, the urban survey unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in April. With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the urban survey unemployment rate declined for two consecutive months from May. In May, the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and further dropped to 5.5% in June. Judging from the situation in the second quarter, the employment situation mainly has the following characteristics:
First, the employment of the main population is generally stable. Although the unemployment rate of employed people aged 25-59 increased in April, the increase was significantly lower than the overall unemployment rate. In June, the unemployment rate of the employed population aged 25-59 was 4.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and close to the average level in 2021.
Second, the employment situation of migrant workers has improved. Migrant workers are mostly engaged in labor-intensive manufacturing and service industries, mostly self-employed and flexible employment, and their employment stability is relatively poor. Affected by the epidemic, the unemployment rate of migrant agricultural registered population rose to 6.6% in April. With the epidemic being gradually controlled, the employment of migrant workers has improved significantly. In May, the unemployment rate of foreign agricultural registered population dropped to 6.2%, and in June it dropped to 5.3%, which was lower than the overall unemployment rate.
Third, the employment pressure of young people is still relatively high. When young people enter the labor market for the first time, they generally face the dilemma of frictional unemployment. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the ability of enterprises to absorb employment has declined, and the channels for young people to find jobs have also been hindered. In addition, the total number of college graduates reached a record high this year, which aggravated the employment pressure of young people. In June, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16-24 was 19.3%, which was at a high level this year.
Generally speaking, with the economic recovery, the stable employment policy has been effective, and the employment situation in China has generally shown an improvement trend in the second quarter. However, the problem of young people’s high employment pressure is still outstanding. We must continue to do a good job in stabilizing employment, especially for key groups. We must further implement the stable employment policy, implement employment assistance, and promote the continuous improvement of the employment situation. Thank you.
Financial Times reporter:
You just mentioned that the investment in fixed assets continued to improve in the second quarter. At the same time, we noticed that the cement output still showed a decline of 12.9% in June, and the operating rate of asphalt also showed a relatively low historical level. How do you understand this contrast? What is the forecast for future infrastructure investment? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Since the beginning of this year, people have paid more attention to investment and related investment products. In recent years, from the perspective of three major fields, China’s investment in manufacturing industry has the fastest growth rate, with the growth rate exceeding 10% in the first half of the year. Among the manufacturing industries, the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by more than 20%. From the structural point of view, China’s economic and industrial development is gradually upgrading, and it is obvious to promote the related products of industrial upgrading. On the contrary, the investment growth of some traditional industries has gradually slowed down, which has limited pull on the production of related traditional products. With the continuous development of China’s industrial upgrading, high quality and innovation in the future, the impetus to the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech related products is increasing. Therefore, in general, although China’s economy has been hit by the epidemic this year, the trend of industrial upgrading and high-quality development has not changed, and the employment and price situation is generally stable. Judging from these circumstances, the trend of China’s economy maintaining steady growth and moving towards high-quality development will not change in the future. Thank you.
Japanese Asahi Shimbun reporter:
Without the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, what is the potential economic growth rate of China? What do you think of the possibility of economic recovery in the second half of the year to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Many institutions and scholars have calculated the potential economic growth rate of China, and the results are different. Generally speaking, most of the conclusions are that the potential growth rate of China’s economy at this stage is about 5.5%-6.5%. In the future, with the increase of China’s economic volume, the constraints of labor resources and environment will be strengthened, and the potential growth rate will gradually decrease. However, from a global perspective, the potential growth rate of 5.5%-6.5% is still in the middle and high level, especially under the condition of China’s large economic volume, it is very difficult to maintain the middle and high level of growth, which also shows that the potential of China’s economic growth is still relatively large.
China is still the largest developing country in the world. Although China’s per capita GDP has exceeded $10,000, there is still a big gap compared with the per capita level of developed countries above $40,000. This gap is also a huge space and potential for China’s economic development in the future. What needs to be pointed out is that the international environment is complicated and severe, the epidemic situation of the century is superimposed, the development of globalization is going against the current, the adjustment and transformation of domestic economic structure is in a critical period, and it is increasingly difficult for China’s economic growth to reach the potential level. We still have to work hard to maintain steady economic growth. In the first half of this year, it was not easy for China’s economy to resist the impact of unexpected factors and maintain growth. At present, the risk of stagflation in the world economy is rising, external instability and uncertainties are increasing, and the triple pressures of domestic demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening still exist, which is a challenge to achieve the expected goal of annual economic growth. However, we should also see that the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic improvement have not changed, the characteristics of strong economic resilience are obvious, and there are abundant macro-policy adjustment tools, which have more favorable conditions for promoting sustained economic recovery. Judging from the situation in the second half of the year, with the efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the effects of various policies and measures to effectively promote economic stability are constantly emerging, and China’s economy is expected to continue to pick up and remain in a reasonable range. In the next stage, we should seize the favorable opportunity of economic stabilization and recovery, make overall plans for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in accordance with the overall requirements of preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy and ensuring safe development, do a good job in implementing a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, lay a solid foundation for economic recovery and maintain sustained and healthy economic development. Thank you.
Interface journalist:
In June, the year-on-year increase of CPI hit a new high in the past two years. With the start of the pig cycle, will the inflationary pressure of the spokesman increase further in the second half of the year? What measures will the government take to keep prices in a reasonable range? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Since the beginning of this year, the international inflationary pressure has risen as a whole, and domestic concerns about price stability are also rising. Since the beginning of this year, with the gradual recovery of domestic market demand and the influence of international input factors, the year-on-year increase of CPI has continued to expand, but overall it has maintained a moderate increase. In the first half of the year, CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, of which food prices fell by 0.4% and non-food prices rose by 2.2%. From the perspective of the second quarter, the increase of CPI was generally stable, rising by 2.3% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, both April and May increased by 2.1% year-on-year, and in June it increased by 2.5%. From the second quarter, the CPI changes have the following characteristics:
First, food prices have turned from falling to rising. Food prices rose by 2.3% in the second quarter and fell by 3.1% in the first quarter. Mainly affected by the increase in the prices of fresh fruits, vegetables, eggs and grain and the narrowing of the decline in pork prices. Among them, the price of pork decreased by 21.3% in the second quarter, which was 20.5 percentage points narrower than that in the first quarter.
Second, the price increase of industrial consumer goods has expanded. In the second quarter, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 4.1% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the first quarter. Mainly due to the influence of international import factors, the prices of some energy sources have risen a lot. In the second quarter, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 30% and 32.8% respectively.
Third, the increase in service prices has dropped. Affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the demand for services is weak, which has lowered the increase in service prices. In the second quarter, service prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Among them, the price increases of air tickets and tourism have all declined. From June, CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and the increase was mainly due to the lower base of the previous year. Among the 2.5% year-on-year increase in June, the hikes affected about 1.2 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month; The new price increase factor is about 1.3 percentage points, which is the same as last month. From the structural point of view, food rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, mainly due to the narrowing of the decline in pork prices. Energy prices rose by 17.4%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points, mainly due to the impact of rising gasoline and diesel prices. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, indicating that the market supply and demand were generally stable.
From an international perspective, China’s CPI increase is significantly lower than that of European and American countries, mainly because China has not adopted the strong stimulus policy of "flooding". In the face of international imported inflation, the domestic market has been strengthened to ensure supply and stabilize prices; In addition, grain production has been strengthened, and this year’s summer grain has achieved a bumper harvest. The summer grain production has increased by 1% over the previous year, ensuring the overall stability of CPI. The stability of the price situation is not only conducive to the smooth operation of the economy, but also conducive to the improvement of people’s livelihood.
Regarding whether the pork price that everyone cares about will affect the overall increase of CPI, the overall impact is limited. At present, the overall production capacity of live pigs has returned to the normal level, and the price does not have the basis for a sharp increase. In the early stage, the big pigs will be released one after another, which is conducive to increasing the supply of pork. In addition, relevant departments will strengthen market regulation and stabilize the relationship between supply and demand, which will promote the stable operation of prices.
In the next stage, after entering the flood season, the supply of fresh goods in some areas may be affected to some extent, and the influence of international input factors may continue. However, the supply capacity of goods and services in China is generally abundant, and the market is increasing its efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Thank you.
The Paper reporter:
You just mentioned that the growth rate of industrial added value turned from negative to positive in May and continued to accelerate in June. At present, the epidemic situation in many places in China has brought new uncertainty to China’s economic and social development. Excuse me, what do you think of the current situation of resumption of work and production in China? What is the forecast for the recovery of industrial economy in the second half of the year and the whole year? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
In the first half of the year, due to unexpected factors at home and abroad, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of industrial production declined in April. However, with the emergence of overall epidemic prevention and control and the effectiveness of economic and social development, measures to stabilize the operation of industrial economy have been exerted, and industrial production has continuously picked up since May. From the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year. From the second quarter, industrial production stopped the downward trend and realized a shift from decline to increase. In the second quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year, which decreased by 2.9% in April, increased by 0.7% in May, and further accelerated to 3.9% in June. The trend of stabilization and recovery was obvious. The main performance is:
First, the mining industry has maintained rapid growth. Energy supply and price stability continued to advance, and related industries continued to grow rapidly, which led to the growth of added value of the mining industry. In the second quarter, the added value of mining industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, in which the growth rate of coal mining and washing industry exceeded double digits, which were significantly faster than that of all industries above designated size.
Second, the growth of high-tech manufacturing industry continues unabated. Despite the adverse impact of the epidemic, the trend of industrial upgrading and development has not changed, and the high-tech manufacturing industry has grown rapidly. In the second quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, faster than all industries above designated size, showing strong resilience.
Third, the role of industrial exports is obvious. China’s industrial production capacity is strong, its international competitiveness is strong, and its industrial exports have maintained rapid growth. In the second quarter, export delivery value, an industrial enterprise above designated size, grew by 8.2% year-on-year, including 15.1% in June, 4 percentage points faster than last month.
Fourth, industrial production in the central and western regions is generally stable. In the second quarter, the eastern and northeastern regions were greatly affected by the epidemic, but the industrial production in the central and western regions was generally stable, which supported industrial production. In the second quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the central and western regions increased by 5.9% and 6% respectively year-on-year, both faster than the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in China.
From June, with the steady growth of a series of measures, industrial production rebounded significantly. First, most industries and regions have rebounded. In June, among the 41 major industrial sectors, the growth rate of 27 industries rebounded from last month, accounting for 65.9%. Among the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded in 21 regions, accounting for 67.7%. Second, the growth rate of equipment manufacturing industry has accelerated. With the gradual opening of the industrial chain supply chain, the production of the automobile industry has rebounded sharply, which has accelerated the equipment manufacturing industry. In June, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.2% year-on-year, 8.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, of which the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 16.2%, down by 7% last month. Third, industrial production in areas that were hit hard by the epidemic in the early stage has obviously recovered. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shanghai and Jilin increased by 13.9% and 6.3% respectively year-on-year, and decreased by 30.9% and 4.9% respectively last month.
These conditions show that industrial production has recovered steadily, the impact of external shocks such as epidemic situation has gradually subsided, production operation has been accelerated and improved, its role in supporting the economy has been enhanced, and the industrial upgrading and development trend has continued, which is conducive to improving the quality of industrial development. However, we should also see that the problem of poor connection between industrial production and marketing still exists, and some industries and enterprises have more difficulties, so it still needs continuous efforts to stabilize the industrial economy. In the next stage, it is necessary to implement various policies to help enterprises get rid of difficulties, strengthen logistics to ensure smooth flow, open up supply chain blockages in industrial chains, support enterprise innovation and development, and promote the smooth operation of industrial production. Thank you.
Shou Xiaoli:
One last question.
The picture shows Shou Xiaoli, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Council Information Office, inviting reporters to ask questions. (photo by Liu Jian)
National business daily reporter:
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s total social zero reached the lowest point since the first half of this year. Since then, there has been a rebound trend in May and June. Does this mean that the inflection point of V-shaped consumption this year has passed? Is the rapid rebound of consumption related to the short-term stimulation of consumer vouchers in many places? How does the National Bureau of Statistics predict the consumption trend in the second half of the year? Thank you.
Fu Linghui:
Thank you for your question. Everyone is more concerned about consumption. Since the beginning of this year, consumption growth has been affected by many factors. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of frequent outbreaks, market sales declined, especially service consumption. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.7% year-on-year. However, since May, with the effective control of the epidemic situation and the effective promotion of consumption policies, market sales have steadily rebounded. In May, the total social zero decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 4.4 percentage points. In June, the growth rate turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%.
Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, the market sales mainly show the following characteristics:
First, the consumption of basic living increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of grain, oil, food and beverages increased by 9.9% and 8.2% respectively, and the basic living consumption of residents was guaranteed.
Second, online retail sales grew steadily. In the first half of the year, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.6% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.
The third is the decline in service consumption. Affected by the epidemic, service consumption dropped significantly. In the first half of the year, catering revenue decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, and residents’ consumption of services such as travel and travel also decreased.
Judging from the situation in June, there has been a positive change in domestic market sales.
First, the growth rate of retail sales of most commodities rebounded. In June, nearly 90% of the retail sales of 18 categories of goods above designated size rebounded from last month, among which the growth rate of clothing and consumer goods rebounded obviously, and cosmetics and communication equipment increased by 8.1% and 6.6% respectively.
Second, the consumption of bulk commodities is obvious. Halving the purchase tax on passenger cars has promoted the introduction of consumption policies in key areas and improved the consumption of bulk commodities such as automobiles and home appliances. In June, the retail sales of automobiles, household appliances and audio-visual equipment of units above designated size increased by 13.9% and 3.2% respectively year-on-year, which was significantly higher than that of last month, driving the zero growth rate of social organizations in that month to exceed 1.5 percentage points.
Third, the consumption of services such as catering has improved significantly. With the gradual increase of residents’ out-going consumption, the service consumption improved. In June, the catering income decreased by 4% year-on-year, and the decline was 17.1 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month. The number of domestic tourists and the degree of income recovery during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday are obviously better than those during the May Day holiday.
Fourth, consumption in areas affected by the epidemic in the early stage rebounded rapidly. In June, the retail sales of goods above designated size in Shanghai decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was 42 percentage points narrower than that in the previous month. Jilin grew by 5.5%, down by 1.5% last month.
Generally speaking, domestic consumption has withstood the impact of the epidemic since May, showing a rebound momentum, and positive changes have increased significantly. Although the recovery of consumption still faces some restrictive factors, such as the slow growth of residents’ income and the limited consumption scenarios, the trend of consumption scale expansion, consumption structure upgrading and consumption pattern innovation in China will not change, coupled with the continuous improvement of social security and the continuous efforts of the policy of stabilizing employment and promoting consumption, China’s consumption is expected to maintain a sustained recovery. Thank you.
Shou Xiaoli:
Thank you, Director Fu Linghui. Thank you, journalists and friends. Today’s press conference is over. Goodbye.
