The box office on the first day of the year may exceed 1.5 billion, which is the strongest in the history of the Spring Festival？
Special feature of 1905 film network On January 17th, 2018, the film was officially opened for pre-sale, with a final pre-sale result of 294 million yuan, which still maintains the highest pre-sale result in China film history.
In the end, last year’s Spring Festival file closed perfectly with 1.277 billion box office and 6.4 billion total box office on New Year’s Day.
So what about 2019?
In the eyes of many people, this year is the strongest Spring Festival file in history.
"Shen Teng vs Shen Teng", "Liu Cixin vs Liu Cixin" and "Jackie Chan vs Stephen Chow" … … It is still difficult to draw a conclusion as to what the final outcome of the king-to-king war will be.
Last Thursday (January 10th), it was the first to open the pre-sale. Six days later, on the first day of 2019, the box office exceeded 100 million, and there were still 17 days before the film was released.
It is not a special signal that the total box office of pre-sales has exceeded 100 million now, but only two of these films have pre-sales close to 30 million, which is a very obvious decline compared with the same period last year — — The pre-sale result of "Catch the Demon 2" is close to 60 million 16 days in advance.
No wonder, some people assert that this is perhaps the most chaotic Spring Festival stall in history.
Except for the nine films that have been pre-sold, the high-profile new year’s day and the new year’s day have all been followed up, and the two official Weibo updates have no substantive content for nearly half a month.Suspected to withdraw from the Spring Festival competition.
(Two pieces are suspected of exiting the Spring Festival file)
There are actually four key problems in the competition pattern of this year’s Spring Festival stalls:
1. Last year’s total box office was 6.4 billion. How much will the market increase this year?
2. How many box offices can the pre-sale of 19.9 yuan stimulate in 2019 when the ticket is no longer available?
3. Last year, from the third echelon of 11.4% of the films, all the way to the first echelon, then who will be "unexpected" this year?
4. Can a series of atypical Chinese New Year blockbusters in Love Saint 2 break through, or are they "acclimatized"?
Last year, five feature films and one animated film finally produced two over 3 billion, one over 2 billion, one over 727 million and one over 600 million, and also won 170 million. This has greatly inspired domestic blockbusters to abandon the December Lunar New Year file and get together to choose the Spring Festival file.
So, can this year’s 7+2 be greater than last year’s 5+1?
Judging from the current pre-sale results and the desire index of each platform, it is obvious that the head films of this year’s Spring Festival file are "Flying Life", "Crazy Alien" and.
The ticketing platform wants to see the index
Nowadays, the single-day box office pre-sale has exceeded 100 million, and these three films are still pulling each other, especially the first two works, and the box office gap between them has been maintained at around 1 million.
However, compared with the pre-sale results of "Catch the Demon 2", there is still a long way to go at the box office.
Why is this happening?
The answer is obvious. When the strong meet, it is easy to divide the box office in the early stage. These two films are starring Shen Teng. After two years of polishing of Mahua FunAge films and frequent variety shows, Shen Teng has become another national comedian after Bo Huang.
Bo Huang, another star of Crazy Alien, although only one film met the audience in the past year, its box office appeal has not diminished.
The king versus the king, the audience is naturally prone to indecision.
In the past Spring Festival files, Stephen Chow and Jackie Chan have always been the easiest to sink the attribute of "family fun".
In 2017, although leading all the way, it was eventually overtaken. But in fact, the word-of-mouth difference between the two is not big, just because Kung Fu Yoga is more in line with everyone’s understanding of Jackie Chan movies and meets the needs of the audience.
But this year, the performance of Stephen Chow’s works and Jackie Chan’s works in the pre-market seems to be unsatisfactory.
At the same time, compared with the co-marketing of various brands of "Catch the Demon 2" last year, several films this year are relatively weak. Apart from the conventional material promotion and the mode of inviting popular idols to participate in the propaganda song, there is no particularly big movement for the time being, which also leads to the fact that the propaganda is not sinking better.
Of course, sinking seems to be a relatively paradoxical word for the Spring Festival. A large number of "homecoming tides" are difficult to define the audience’s taste, but the success of pre-sale in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities is still the most critical factor in the film.
Last year, the successful ticket replacement helped the pre-sale of the film in the early stage, and at the same time won enough market space for the single film. Nowadays, the pre-sale results seem to be declining gradually, but the ticketing platforms such as Cat’s Eye and Taobao Film still advertise "preferential ticket purchase from 19.9 yuan", and "internet plus Movie" is still the key to the current movie market.
However, since last year’s Operation Red Sea, more and more films have relied on word-of-mouth counterattack, and after the incident, the pre-sale box office has lost some persuasiveness.
Especially for the special schedule of the Spring Festival, the movies in this schedule have a fresh life of nearly half a month. Although there are occasional films released on the eighth day of the seventh day, it is difficult to defend the films within the schedule.
Dating back to 2014, at that time, the atmosphere of "watching movies for all" rose, and even it was able to counterattack and create a box office miracle. It seems that any film can get a bowl of soup, and word-of-mouth and box office do not seem to be particularly related in this schedule.
2015 Spring Festival box office
In addition, since 2016, the film market has begun another very important word-of-mouth marketing: emotional marketing.
Under the slogan of "owing Stephen Chow movie tickets", The Mermaid snapped up 3.38 billion yuan.
2016 Spring Festival box office
Finally, the film quality of The Mermaid failed to meet the expectations of Stephen Chow fans. The next year, when "A Journey to the West" took this as a stunt again, the effect was obviously discounted.
In 2019, Stephen Chow relied on the classic IP to bring "New king of comedy", and the publicity materials featured "Stephen Chow’s Works" from beginning to end. But judging from the current popularity, the audience began to hesitate.
2017 Spring Festival box office
While the film market in China is developing faster and faster, it is also undergoing a transformation from fast to strong. The audience is rational. In the Spring Festival of 2018, word-of-mouth successfully restricted the box office, making it difficult to break 1 billion, while the "Nineteenth Generation of Ancestors" with a pot of stew missed the box office of 200 million. Operation Red Sea, by virtue of word-of-mouth, fought back from the third echelon, which ranked 11.4%.
Operation Red Sea platoon film all the way back.
It can be seen that any film may become a "dark horse" through word of mouth.
With Operation Red Sea Zhuyu in the front, the so-called "family fun" is no longer the key to the success of Spring Festival movies.
Operation Red Sea has always been the benchmark, and the producer behind it, Beijing Culture, is very good at word-of-mouth marketing. As long as the quality of the film can pass, this film with the banner of "China’s first hard science fiction" may be countered.
Of course, the key to the counterattack is that the quality of other films can not fully meet the expectations of the audience. But as far as the current materials are concerned, the strength of The Wandering Earth’s opponents is quite strong, and it is not difficult to counterattack.
Of course, when it comes to counterattack, Han Han is indispensable.
Han Han’s first two works have been countered in the summer vacation and the Spring Festival, and they are among the 1 billion box office clubs. Han Han’s films have always had their own unique style. Now, when he comes to Shen Teng to join us, as long as he can maintain the level of his previous works, the performance of Flying Life will not be too bad.
Let’s look at Crazy Alien, the arch-rival of Flying Life, which has assembled three actors who are highly recognized by the whole people, Shen Teng, Bo Huang and Xú Zhēng. In addition, Ning Hao has been focusing on word-of-mouth cards in recent years.
In terms of quality assurance, the word "Ning Hao’s Works" seems to be much more convincing than "Stephen Chow’s Works".
On the other hand, Jackie Chan seems to have been pursuing transformation after Kung Fu Yoga. This time, he also abandoned martial arts and became a literary giant Pu Songling.
However, this time there is not much advantage in the "starting line", but it must be admitted that Jackie Chan’s audience in the Spring Festival file has been very stable. Judging from the current preview, it seems to be the film with the most "family fun" attribute among several works.
In fact, it was Jackie Chan who first created the concept of New Year’s films across the Taiwan Strait and three places. In the past Spring Festival files, his modern fashion films were the first at the box office. Now the biggest attraction of Detective Pu Songling may be whether Jackie Chan can continue to support his box office appeal after the transformation.
In addition, the two films "Integrity" and "Lover 2" don’t seem to have too many advantages. Judging from the performance of similar themes in other important schedules,"Lover 2" may become a "BlackHorse "As for how much room it has to move forward, it may depend on the follow-up word of mouth.
Relatively speaking, the animation market is relatively stable. "Bears haunt" series has always been the most domineering animation IP in this schedule, but this year, there will be some variables.
Although "Piggy Peggy’s New Year" is a young movie, it appears in the mode of real person and animation. Whether children can pay the bill in the end may be the most important key point in its marketing.
It can be seen that this year’s Spring Festival file is very cruel, just like the left and right hands fighting each other. What will happen in the end? In fact, Xiao Dianjun is hard to predict, and the final result may surprise everyone.
Return to the overall situation, is it possible to expand the market? Xiao Dianjun believes that there is still some.
Looking back over the past three years, the total number of people watching movies on the first day of the National New Year has increased from 17.67 million in 2016 to 32.63 million last year. At the same time, the number of movie screens in China continues to grow, and the number of people who can watch movies is increasing. There is still room for expansion in the natural market.
Just where is the ceiling for expansion? Perhaps the decisive factor is the film itself.