National Marine Disaster Prediction Opinion in 2019： The disastrous typhoon waves in the South China Sea are more serious.

　　Cctv newsA few days ago, the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources released the opinions of the 2019 National Marine Disaster Prediction Conference. The opinion is that the disastrous typhoon storm surge in 2019 mainly affects the coastal areas of the South China Sea, and the disastrous typhoon waves in the South China Sea are also serious; In 2019, the number of red tides in China’s offshore waters was less than the average for many years, and the areas with serious red tides mainly included the coastal areas of Zhejiang, the coastal areas from central to northern Fujian and the waters in central Guangdong.

　　[El Nino]

　　A weak El Ni? o event has been formed in the equatorial Middle East Pacific in autumn and winter of 2018/19. In February 2019, the SST anomaly in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean was maintained. It is expected that the SST anomaly will continue to develop in spring and summer and continue into winter, forming a moderate-intensity El Ni? o event.

　　【 Catastrophic storm surge 】

　　It is estimated that the main sea area affected by disastrous typhoon storm surge in 2019 will be the South China Sea coast. The number of disastrous typhoon storm surges in China’s coastal areas is 3 ~ 4 times, and the number of disastrous typhoon storm surges in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea is 0 ~ 1 times. The number of catastrophic typhoon storm surges in the East China Sea is 1 ~ 2 times; The number of catastrophic typhoon storm surges in the South China Sea is 2 ~ 3 times. At the same time, in 2019, there will be two or three catastrophic temperate storm surges along the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea.

　　[disastrous waves]

　　It is estimated that in 2019, there will be 38 ~ 42 catastrophic wave processes in China’s offshore waters, which is a downward trend compared with 2018 (44 times). Among them, the number of catastrophic typhoon waves has a downward trend compared with 2018 (21 times), ranging from 15 to 17 times; The frequency of disastrous cold air and cyclone waves has an upward trend compared with 2018 (23 times), ranging from 23 to 25 times.

　　[Red tide disaster]

　　It is estimated that the number of red tides in China’s offshore waters will be 42 ~ 54 in 2019, which is less than the average for many years and more than that in 2018. Among them, the areas seriously affected by red tide mainly include the coastal areas of Zhejiang, the coastal areas from central to northern Fujian and the waters in central Guangdong.

　　[Offshore SST]

　　It is estimated that the SST in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the south-central South China Sea in June 2019 will be slightly higher than normal, and the SST in the northern part of the East China Sea will be slightly lower than normal. In July, the sea temperature in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea was slightly higher than normal, and the sea temperature in the northern part of the East China Sea was slightly lower than normal. In August, the SST in Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and South China Sea was slightly higher than normal. In September, the SST in the northern Yellow Sea and South China Sea was slightly higher than normal, while the SST in the southern Yellow Sea and northern East China Sea was slightly lower than normal. In October, the SST in the South China Sea was slightly higher than normal.

　　Experts reminded that this year’s storm surge prevention focuses on the coastal areas of southern Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi. The coastal governments and relevant departments in these areas need to attach great importance to moisture prevention and disaster reduction in low-lying areas and densely populated areas that are vulnerable to storm surges along the coast; The disastrous typhoon waves in the South China Sea are serious this year, so the prediction and early warning of typhoon waves should be strengthened. The high SST in the South China Sea this year will increase the risk of coral reef bleaching, so it is suggested to strengthen the monitoring and protection of coral reefs. This year, the number of red tides has increased compared with last year, so relevant coastal departments should pay attention to the early warning and forecasting information of marine disasters in time and make preparations for monitoring and early warning of red tides in advance.

　　(CCTV reporter Zheng Tianqi)