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Author Li Geng

Toutu, vision china

In the deep case of last November, "Why is Cyrus’ financial report still deteriorating? ",Miao tou once gave a conclusion based on the analysis of depth-Huawei was very strong, but at that time it still couldn’t make up for Cyrus’ own shortcomings.

The reason is also very simple:Although Celestial achieved the reversal of the sales trend by "configuration adjustment+70,000 yuan sharp price reduction" for the new M7 at the end of 2023, overall, the deep cooperation with Huawei did not help Celestial to establish its "high-end+high gross profit" brand positioning.

The decline of the brand in the world from "luxury" to "mainstream" immediately caused Cyrus to directly fall into the "quagmire" that all new car-making forces have to face:Without price reduction, there is no sales volume, and the scale can increase. However, because the scale is not large enough and the average cost decreases slowly, it is very difficult for the financial level to achieve a break-even point, let alone realize the benign development of car companies.

The trend of Celestial in the following months (red arrow) also confirmed our judgment. Although the sales volume of the new M7 soared for several months in a row, its share price actually went down in November, with the largest retracement reaching 37.6%, exceeding 32.4% of the whole vehicle sector in the same period.

By February of this year, the share price of Cyrus had another obvious change: first, it rose directly by 59.5% in more than a month.(Blue arrow), from a low of less than 60 yuan/share to a high of more than 100 yuan/share; Then from mid-March, it continued to decline, with a cumulative withdrawal of 17.6%, and now it is less than 90 yuan/share.(green arrow).

Let Cyrus go out of the clear upward share price, which is the brand-new flagship product M9 that it officially began to deliver this year. Numerous data show that it has achieved incredible performance figures in the industry. The sharp shock in the market also shows that there are still doubts and differences in the market about this product, including the changes it can bring to Celeste.

Under the premise that the detailed data of the 2023 annual report will not be released until the end of April, why did Cyrus’ share price rise ahead of schedule? Why is M9 a "miracle" for Cyrus? How should Cyrus’ performance in 2024 be expected? How should we adjust our expectations for Cyrus and some new car-making forces?Today we will focus on these three issues.

Why did Cyrus turn upside down?

As early as the end of January this year, Cyrus announced the expected loss of its performance in 2023: it is estimated that the operating income will reach 35.5 billion yuan to 36.5 billion yuan in 2023, up by 4.09% to 7.02% year-on-year; The net profit loss of returning to the mother was 2.1 billion yuan to 2.7 billion yuan, which was narrower than the loss of 3.832 billion yuan in 2022; After deducting non-profit, the net profit loss is 4.6 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, and the loss of 4.296 billion yuan in 2022 is still increasing.

According to this caliber, combined with the relevant financial data of Cyrus in the first three quarters of last year, it is not difficult to calculate the approximate range of Cyrus’ fourth quarter revenue and non-net profit deduction.

In the fourth quarter alone, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, Cyrus’ revenue and non-net profit have achieved good growth: year-on-year, revenue increased by 75.9%, and the ratio of loss-making revenue shrank by 29.1%; Under the ring-on-ring caliber, revenue increased by 242.1%, and the ratio of loss revenue decreased by 53.8%.

Source: Car owners’ home

The substantial improvement of Cyrus’ ring caliber is the result of its recent strategy, which can be summarized in one sentence-Do everything you can to increase the sales of the new M7, even if you directly suppress your own lower-end M5, even if you sell one, you will lose one.

The "crazy profit-making" has brought two results. One is the apparent loss of profit: in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, Cyrus accumulated more than 2 billion yuan on the new M7. If the first quarter of 2024 is added, the total amount of "profit-making" will reach 5 billion yuan. However, as the sales volume of the new M7 began to climb, the production and manufacturing assembly line of Cyrus began to operate efficiently, and its average vehicle cost began to decline.

According to the estimated financial results in the fourth quarter and the historical sales volume of Celestial Group, the new M7 has realized the positive adjustment of non-net profit deducted from cars in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The first two quarters of 2023, and the fourth quarter.(estimated value)The deduction of non-net profit performance is similar(-1.885 billion yuan,-1.785 billion yuan); Non-Cyrus brand in two time periods(everything except asking the world)The sales figures are also very close.(19,000 vehicles, 17,300 vehicles). In other words, during these two periods, the Celeste brand basically realized the zero deduction of non-net profit.

Corresponding to the specific vehicle type, it is the result of selling 7,000 vehicles less than the M5 and 49,000 vehicles more than the M7. It is certainly unrealistic for these two models to "break even" at the same time, which can only be "M5 lost and M7 earned".Combined with the ratio of the number of sales changes, it should be "M7 earns thousands, M5 loses tens of thousands".

Cyrus could have made more and more profits as long as it continued to produce and sell M7, but obviously other car companies did not intend to let Cyrus enjoy the market segment of about 250,000 yuan, 5 seats and 7 seats, giving priority to household use and highlighting the intelligent SUV products.

The ideal came straight to the world of inquiry, and the price of M7 in the world of inquiry has been adjusted, dropping by 20,000 yuan.

Take L6, the first brand-new model with a price below 300,000 yuan, which was released last week as an example, not only aimed at the new M7 in product design and positioning, but also directly set the starting price consistent with that before the new M7. The ideal "name-calling match" left Cyrus no choice but to directly reduce the price of the new M7 by 20,000 yuan in early April this year.

The operation of price reduction has once again "guaranteed" the next sales volume of the new M7, but it will inevitably turn the non-profit "earning thousands" of the M7 bicycle deduction into "losing thousands to more than 10,000" again, and make the break-even point of the new M7 move back again.

Besides M7, M5, which was "strategically abandoned" at the end of last year, is about to return. At the "2024 Beijing Auto Show" held this week, Sailis will re-release "Ask the M5". Judging from the previous information, the new M5 will probably follow the old path that the new M7 has taken. Impact the market through "adjustment of configuration+substantial price reduction". The price is definitely lower than M7, and it is closer to the positioning of mainstream products of many independent car companies, which makes M5 destined to become a difficult challenge again.

Obviously, although the product combination of "M5+M7" still has the ability to bring sufficient sales to Cyrus, it is unlikely to bear the burden of "making profits". If you don’t want to end up making money at a loss, Cyrus must find a new way out.

The listing of the M9 at this critical time not only provided a new outlet for Sailis, but also opened a new stage of China Automobile, which was a "miracle".

M9, why can it be called a "miracle"?

There are two main reasons why M9 is called "miracle":

Let’s talk about the sales figures first. On April 11th, at the Huawei HarmonyOS Spring Eco-communication New Product Launch Conference, Yu Chengdong announced two big figures: the cumulative big figure of M7 was 174,000, and the big figure of M9 exceeded 70,000.

At the end of last year, the propaganda offensives of both Cyrus and Huawei were full, and a large number of publicity was carried out several times.

Although since last year, Huawei has been constantly updating big figures and publishing posters through all channels, it is a bit annoying to encourage more consumers to buy the new M7. However, combined with the big figures, sales trends and insurance volume data published by the new M7, the big data spread by it basically does not have much moisture.

As of March, 2024, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of the new M7 was 164,000 vehicles, and the cumulative insured amount was 152,000 vehicles, which is equivalent to the fact that Cyrus still holds an order of about 10,000 vehicles without production and delivery. This digital trend is also in line with the industry law of "stacking orders as soon as new products are released, and then with the improvement of production capacity, undelivered orders gradually decrease and turn into no delivery cycle".

As for the sales volume of M9, up to now, the official has only released two figures: First, it sold 5,446 units in February.(wholesale sales); Second, the delivery volume in March was 6,243 units.(Retail sales). The number that can be found from the public insurance database is that in February and March of this year, the number of insurance coverage of 1324 vehicles and 6429 vehicles was realized by the customer M9, which is basically consistent with the official marketing figures.

Image from: Snowball user "Castle Peak Hermit"

Based on the reliable official fixed figures, we can fit and calculate the fixed growth rate of M9, which can be converted into the monthly sales expectation of M9. The snowball user "Castle Peak Hermit" has calculated that the new M9 will increase by about 393 vehicles/day, which translates to 11,800 vehicles in 30 days.

As the earliest fixed data of a new car, its fixed and subsequent sales will further slow down with the passage of time.(The number of users who have no brains to buy this product is gradually exhausted)It is optimistically estimated that the annual sales volume of M9 will be 80,000 ~ 90,000 vehicles.(Average daily sales volume is 250+)The neutral forecast is that the annual sales volume of M9 will be 60,000 ~ 70,000 vehicles.(The average daily sales volume is about 200), pessimistic forecast M9 annual sales of 50000 vehicles.(The average daily sales volume is less than 150).

With reference to its guide price of 469,800 yuan to 569,800 yuan, it is a high probability event that the gross profit space of M9 after scale is close to 30%. According to the median price of 520,000 yuan and the wholesale sales of 60,000 ~ 70,000 vehicles in the whole year, M9 can contribute about 10 billion gross profit for Celeste, which is enough to support its fight in the mainstream market and can also be converted into a solid net profit in the final financial performance.

Miaotou once wrote another deep case in early 2023, "Building a new car force, is it dead?" ",in-depth analysis of the reasons for Wei Lai’s worst development in" Wei Xiaoli "-Weilai’s luxury brands and products have basically not sunk into the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. More than half of the high-end "cakes" that have been paved by many rounds of marketing and branding are "unable to eat".

Especially for the new domestic forces, once the order support in the luxury market is insufficient, it is impossible toIn order to maintain its healthy operation at the sales end with higher gross profit, then the subsequent scale expansion and growth of new forces must "borrow money" from institutions and markets at a much greater cost, and the probability of failure increases sharply.

Most new power brands are younger, more receptive to technology brands, more receptive to green changes, and more complete infrastructure for new energy use in first-tier and new first-tier cities. When the "upstart" high-value consumers in this market area are gradually exhausted, and the new forces want to grow or maintain their own sales, they can only "test" down, and eventually they are forced to enter the mainstream market, but they are caught in a further decline.

And this is also the magic of Cyrus. Last year, the new M7 failed to achieve a luxury brand, and it stopped at this year’s M9, and it was an unprecedented success.

This can be seen from the regional comparison of insurance data of M7 and M9. Compared with M7 in the mainstream market, the proportion of M9 in new first-tier and second-tier cities is almost the same. In the past, the proportion of insurance in the third, fourth and fifth-tier cities, which was the most difficult for independent brands to enter, also exceeded 20%, far exceeding the ideal L9 with a slightly lower price, but with some similarities in product positioning.

Combining all kinds of external information at present, Miaotou judges the success of M9, with a high probability because it has successfully captured the opportunity of the domestic "old money" user group market.

From: soochow securities

According to the 2023 China Private Wealth Report, in 2023, 51% of the high-net-worth individuals in China were over 40 years old. It is an important group of people who consume luxury cars in China, but in the past, they were conservative in the choice of models (basically not considering new energy), and they also cared very much about the brands of car companies (basically only considering BBA).

Compared with the first-and second-tier cities with faster city pace, more hard-working people and more "upstarts" with high net worth, the proportion of "old money" users in the third, fourth and fifth-tier cities is definitely much higher than 51%.In other words, if the luxury models of the high-end models of the new forces can obtain continuous sales support in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, and the proportion of total sales continues to be high, it can basically be confirmed that they have captured the "old money" market.

The "sudden" success of M9 in the world is obviously inseparable from Huawei’s brand influence.Thanks to Huawei’s past operation of consumer electronic products such as mobile phones for people over 40 years old, it has established a strong brand influence and technical endorsement, and superimposed on the product side, M9 accurately grasped the demand of successful people for luxury cars, and finally realized the double breakthrough of "region+people".

Finally: talk about performance expectations and industry prospects.

First of all, from the perspective of production capacity, there are currently three factories in Celestial. At the end of last year, the production capacity of No.1 Factory and No.2 Factory has approached saturation (producing new M7), and the total production capacity of these two factories is roughly 30,000 to 35,000 vehicles per month. At present, No.3 Plant is mainly used for M9 production, and its monthly production capacity is close to 7,000, so it is not a big problem to upgrade to over 10,000 units in the next quarter.

Referring to our multiple judgments based on Celestial products, market structure and demand, the goal of the mainstream product "M5+M7" is to run as full as possible.(including price reduction, etc.)The annual sales target is 300,000 ~ 350,000, the net profit is estimated to be 0 ~ 3%, and the comprehensive break-even point will not appear until at least the end of the third quarter.(In the second quarter, the probability of average profit of M5 and M7 cars is negative.).

The annual sales volume of "M9" is optimistic that the annual sales volume of M9 will be 80,000-90,000, neutral that it will be 60,000-70,000, and pessimistic that it will be around 50,000. The gross profit of a single product is expected to hit more than 25%, and the net profit is not easy to predict at present, so it needs to be calculated in combination with the follow-up sales volume and cost. However, it should be a high probability event that the net profit turns positive during the year.

To sum up, it is a high probability that the performance of Cyrus 2024 will continue to improve, including a substantial increase in revenue and a possible "turnaround" in the fourth quarter. Sellers’ performance with relatively high certainty deserves special attention and layout.

Let’s finally discuss Huawei, because in Miaotou’s view, the impact of the "counterattack" achieved by M9 on the entire automobile industry is more significant than that of Cyrus.

As early as the end of last year, in BYD’s deep case "Huawei is the biggest threat to BYD", we specifically pointed out-Huawei has a tradition of innovation based on user needs and user experience. In cooperation with Huawei, other independent auto companies are expected to pull China’s auto industry into the intelligent stage where BYD is not very good at it.

Obviously, we still underestimated the "help" of Huawei brand in building high-end automobile products.(It is also because M5 and M7 were too unsuccessful at that time, and now it seems to be the product itself.). As a manufacturer that mainly produced minivans and compact passenger cars in the past, Celeste has gradually blossomed in the mainstream market and luxury market, and Huawei’s role is beyond words.

Compared with other new forces "starting from scratch", we can only impress users through one product, and accumulate brand potential energy in a very long period through word of mouth after use; In-depth cooperation with Huawei, directly joining "HarmonyOS Zhixing", enjoying Huawei’s package of intelligent solutions, and finally being able to export through Huawei’s marketing methods and sales network, will probably become an opportunity for many "lost car companies" to reverse their entry into the luxury market.

At the upcoming Beijing Auto Show this week, the brand-new luxury car enjoyment S9 jointly built by Huawei and BAIC is about to usher in its debut; Last week, it was also reported that Huawei executives visited Guangzhou Automobile Group, and the two sides will officially announce cooperation during the Beijing Auto Show.

If Huawei can continue its impact on the luxury market monopolized by domestic joint ventures with the sample of M9, this new energy market, which was first educated by new forces such as Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, may eventually be picked by Huawei.

In the long run, if other car companies want to "immunize" Huawei’s attacks, there are only two ways to go, or their own scale is strong enough, and they have enough R&D and innovation capabilities and funds to keep up with innovation; Either join Huawei’s system, and eventually, with the help of more and more car companies, Huawei’s "snowball" will be rolled into the new energy "Bosch" it aims at, or it will become the new "soul" of China’s auto industry.

Whether auto companies like it or not, Huawei’s increasingly in-depth "spoiler" is pushing the new energy reform of China auto industry to a new level.

On the occasion of bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new.

Why not go out and explore our city?

Subway travel is green and convenient.

The next three-day interval is coming ~ ~ ~

Traffic interval of each line during New Year’s Day holiday

In order to ensure that citizens and friends can travel with peace of mind during holidays, Qingdao Metro analyzes the characteristics of passenger flow on New Year’s Day in advance and formulates special transport capacity guarantee measures. During this period, spare trains are arranged for each line, and additional trains are organized according to the passenger flow to replenish the transport capacity in time. The driving intervals of each line during the New Year holiday are as follows:

Optimizing transportation organization to ensure passengers’ travel

Qingdao Metro is guided by passenger flow demand, combined with the historical passenger flow law, fully studies the transportation demand, and optimizes the peak coverage period of May 4th Square Station, Fushan Station and Yan ‘erdao Road Station, and the peak capacity period lasts until 22:00. At the same time, we will focus on the changes of passenger flow from 20:00 to the end of operation. In case of ground passengers gathering, we will respond to passengers in a timely manner, relieve the pressure of local large passenger flow and avoid passengers staying.

Warm reminder: During the holidays, the operation hours of each station of the network will remain unchanged. Passengers who take the subway at night are advised to make travel plans in advance and arrange the travel time reasonably to avoid missing the last bus. If you need to transfer, please know the last bus time of the transfer line in advance.

Travel guide for warm winter market

Jazz Garden Winter Jazz Town

Time: from December 1, 2023 to January 7, 2024, every Friday to Sunday and January 1, 2024.

Venue: Former site of Belgian Consulate and courtyard of Guo Moruo’s former residence.

Travel route: Take Metro Line 3 to Taipingjiao Park Station, and exit B is within walking distance.

Winter fairy tale market

Time: from November 30, 2023 to January 1, 2024, from Thursday to Sunday and January 1, 2024.

Venue: Qingdao Museum of the Former Site of German Governor’s Building (Qingdao Guest House)

Travel route: Take Metro Line 4 to Signal Mountain (Affiliated Hospital of Qingda University) Station, and exit B2 is within walking distance.

Travel reminder

1. According to the Catalogue of Articles Prohibited and Restricted in Qingdao Rail Transit, it is forbidden to carry fireworks products, such as fireworks bombs, fireworks (including cold light fireworks), firecrackers, smashing cannons, starter paper, black powder, pyrotechnics, fuse, and "steel wool fireworks" when entering the station and taking the bus, as well as products with fireworks effect, and it is forbidden to carry them with length, width and height.

It is restricted to carry kitchen knives, fruit knives, dinner knives, scissors, craft knives, tool knives, etc. when entering the station or taking the bus, the blade part of the kitchen knife should be less than 20 cm, and the blade parts of other single items should be less than 10 cm. In addition, under the condition of intact packaging or taking other necessary protective measures, one single item can be carried in a limited amount, and the cumulative limit can not exceed three. If you carry sharp and blunt objects such as axes, hammers, steel (iron) files, awls (sharp objects) and iron bars, the length should be less than 25 cm, and if the packaging is intact or other necessary protective measures are taken, you can carry one single product in a limited amount, and the cumulative limit should not exceed three.

2. The passenger flow during holidays may be large, and people in the car may feel hot. Please increase or decrease your clothes according to your personal physique when getting on and off, and please take your belongings with you when getting off.

3. Go out for fun If you encounter bad weather and need to enter the station before the station leaves, you can call the station through the APP- Love Reservation function of Qingdao Metro, contact the staff to open the door in advance and wait at the station to avoid the wind, rain and cold.

4. If you encounter any problems or difficulties during the ride, you can contact the station staff or call the Qingdao subway service hotline 0532-55770000, and we will help you wholeheartedly.

Wave goodbye to 2023

Embrace 2024

Qingdao Metro wishes everyone.

a new year

May peace be with you always.

May happiness be with you always.

2024

Long Xing snipe dádá.

Original title: "New Year’s Day three-day subway train plan is coming ~ ~ ~ with a guide to warm winter market"

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The Forbidden City in Beijing is a world cultural heritage site. In 2022, on the east side of the Forbidden City, a small ecological green space began to be built against the wall. Covering an area of 150 square meters, the "Jianting Green Space" recorded a total of 37 species of designed planting plants, 42 species of autogenous plants and 29 species of animals.

The creation of biological living space is the field of urban ecology. In the high-density residential environment, the micro-green ecosystem of native plant communities is constructed to provide living space for birds, insects and other creatures. However, the most noteworthy phenomenon in the "Jianting Greenland" project is that the designers actively and massively integrated into cultural resources, corresponding to the principle of authenticity of world heritage, and logically and responsibly combined the "authenticity" of restored landscape with the "artistic conception" of garden construction. Ecological workers identify "plants" in the paintings in the Forbidden City, investigate the "patches" of native plants preserved in imperial gardens such as Yuanmingyuan within the scope of "three mountains and five gardens", and then combine the list of zonal plants in the literature of phytogeography and vegetation ecology-next, focus on corresponding reproduction. The content combination of "Jianting Green Space" goes further than the conventional and traditional idea of "garden flower border", adding native plant elements, and also meets the requirements of heritage sites for the inheritance of historical context and the new expectations for the protection of urban biodiversity.

So, is this a matter of "nature" or should it be attributed to the overall space of "culture"?

In recent years, the concept of "natural-based solutions" has played an important role in coping with global challenges such as climate change, disaster prevention and mitigation, food security, water security and ecosystem degradation. In 2021, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China and the World Conservation Union jointly published the Typical Case of China’s Practice of Nature-based Solutions, which involved the types of ecosystems such as nature, agriculture and cities and the main functions of national land space. Under the background of ecological civilization construction, the restoration means based on nature will gradually and profoundly affect the interpretation of the value of great sites, the continuation of the style of famous cities and even the reproduction of the authenticity of heritage parks.

If the "Jianting Greenland" project is simply summed up as a whimsical biodiversity practice and only focuses on "creating an interesting ecological landscape", it obviously underestimates the efforts and wisdom of all parties. "Jianting Greenland" is the crystallization of cultural heritage protection, natural restoration and public ecological concept, and it is a shining cultural spark in the "natural-based solution", which effectively extends the system path to the establishment of "natural-based cultural solution".

What objectives should be included in the "Nature-based Cultural Program"? One is to reflect the interaction between "nature" and "culture", especially to expand the position and function of natural science in cultural projects; The second is to understand and describe the wisdom and social progress of human beings in sustainable development from the perspective of "culture" of world heritage. This means a brand-new theoretical cross-system, and it is impossible to simply combine or pile up various fields. The knowledge structure and implementation steps of "cultural scheme based on nature" must come from practice test. Thus, the emergence of one "Arrow Pavilion Green Space" after another has a positive significance worthy of attention and encouragement.

Time has entered 2023, and badminton has entered a new year. With the normal development of sports events in 2022, domestic and international badminton events will flourish in 2023! After three years, badminton fans can feast their eyes again!

What are the badminton events that should not be missed in the new year? Let’s talk about domestic badminton events first. On January 1, 2023, China Badminton Association made careful arrangements for badminton competitions and activities in 2023, both professional and amateur. There are competitions and activities for the old, middle-aged, young and young people, and there is an upsurge of "national fitness" in China!

I. Arrangement of domestic badminton events and badminton activities

In 2023, the national events drawn up by China Badminton Association include: National Badminton Individual Championship, National Badminton Team Championship, National Badminton Individual Championship and National Badminton Team Championship; China Badminton Club League A and China Badminton Club League B; National Youth Badminton Championship, National U Series Badminton Finals, National Fitness Badminton Competition, etc. The time starts in February, and the specific arrangements are as follows:

Second, international badminton events

Looking at the World Badminton Federation tournament table, in 2023, there will be 4 events of Super 1000, 6 events of Super 750, 9 events of Super 500, 11 events of 300, and 10 other important events. It is stipulated by the World Badminton Federation that the top 10 players must participate in more than 750 events (unless injured). Therefore, badminton events in 2023 are intensive and quite exciting!

January

January 10th-15th, Malaysian Open, Super 1000.

January 17th-January 22nd, Indian Open, Super 750.

January 24th-29th, Indonesian Masters, Super 500.

January 31st-February 5th, Thai Princess Masters, Super 300.

At the beginning of the new season, Guoyu is fully fired and goes all out to fight in the international arena. Guoyu men’s singles Shi Yuqi, Lu Guangzu, Li Shizhen, Weng Hongyang; Han Yue and Zhang Yiman of women’s singles; He Jiting/Zhou Haodong, Tan Qiangren/Yu Xiang in men’s doubles, Li Wenmei/Liu Xuanxuan, Zhang Shuxian and Du Yue in women’s doubles; Wang Yilu and Huang Dongping of mixed doubles all signed up for the competition.

The high-level competition with four back-to-back stops is a great test for athletes. Zheng Siwei/Huang Yaqiong and Chen Qingchen/Jia Yifan only participated in the first two high-level races, while Chen Yufei, He Bingjiao, Wang Zhiyi, Liu Yuchen/Ou Xuanyi and Liang Weikeng/Wang Chang participated in the first three races.

The first two stops (Malaysia Open and India Open) of the Yellow Duck Team were combined, but they were dismantled in the third stop (Indonesia Competition) and the fourth stop (Princess Thailand Competition), namely Du Yue, Wang Yilu’s partner, Feng Yanzhe, Huang Dongping’s partner, Yu Xian, the women’s doubles team, Zheng Yu and Du Yue’s partner, Zhang Shuxian and Liu Sheng, one of the women’s doubles champions in the 2022 World Youth Championship.

There are also some new talents born after 00, such as Chen Boyang/Liu Yi in men’s doubles, Li Yijing/Luo Min Xu in women’s doubles, Jiang Zhenbang/Wei Yaxin in mixed doubles, and Cheng Xing/Chen Fanghui will also appear in Indonesian Masters and Thai Princess Masters. We expect Guoyu’s main force and rookie to bring wonderful games to the fans at the beginning of the new year!

February

Mainly intercontinental team events, mixed team events in Asia, Europe, Africa, America and Oceania, these are the qualifiers of this year’s Su Cup. As China is the defending champion and the host, China can directly enter the Su Cup lineup. Starting from the tacit understanding degree of training novices and cultivating new combinations, China team probably won’t send the main players to participate in the competition. In this way, the main force of Guoyu who participated in the January competition will have a period of time to adjust their state and prepare for the important competition in March.

March

March 7 -12, German Open, Super 300

March 14th-19th, All England Open, Super 1000.

March 14th-19th, China Ruichang Masters, Super 100.

March 21 -26, Swiss Open, Super 300

March 28th-April 2nd, Spanish Masters, Super 300.

This month, there are four consecutive European competitions, among which the Super 1000 All England Open is the most concerned event. In addition, the China Jiangxi Ruichang Masters, which is held at the same time as the All England Competition, is a new event, which will be a stage for young players, and young players of Guoyu will naturally not miss this excellent exercise opportunity.

april

There are not many high-level competitions in April. Except for the Super 300 Masters in Orleans, France, which was held from April 4 to 9, all other events were intercontinental individual championships. The more important event was the Asian Badminton Individual Championships held in Dubai from April 25 to 30, which is equivalent to the Super 1000 event, and the main force of the national badminton should participate. There are also the Pan-American Championship from April 27th to 30th, and the European Championship from April 25th to 30th.

May

From May 14th to 21st, Sudirman Cup was held in Suzhou, China.

May 23 -28, Malaysia Masters, Super 500

May 30th-June 4th, Thailand Open, Super 500

There is no doubt that Asia is the place with the highest level of badminton. It started from Asian competitions in January and returned to Asia again in May. May is the beginning of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games points competition. This month, the focus is on the Sudirman Cup mixed team competition, with Guoyu playing at home, with the goal of defending successfully. Of course, the strength of Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Denmark and other teams should not be underestimated! In Suzhou, fans can watch the Su Cup once again, which is also the third time that domestic fans can watch the ball again. Now tickets for Su Cup have been sold.

June

June 6 -11, Singapore Open, Super 750

June 13th-18th, Indonesia Open, Super 1000.

June 20th-25th, China Taipei Open, Super 300.

The Indonesian Open has always been a highly regarded event, and it has the title of "Devil’s Home". Even Lin Dan failed to win the Indonesian Open. Since he first fought in the Indonesian Open in 2002, Lin Dan has participated in the Indonesian Open eight times in 2002, 03, 04, 09, 11, 15, 16 and 17, but his best result is only the semi-finals, and he has not reached the final once.

July

July 4 -9, Canadian Open, Super 500

July 11th-16th, US Open, Super 300.

August

August 1 -6, Australian Open, Super 500

August 8 -13, New Zealand Open, Super 300

August 21 -27, World Championships

The World Championships is also an annual badminton feast, and it is also the most concerned event for every player. How many players have become famous here in World War I, such as Marin of Spain, Indanon of Thailand, and Xie Dingfeng/Su Wei of Malaysia, all of which have sprung up in the World Championships. For every player, the World Championships are an indispensable puzzle for his career.

September

September 5 -10, China Open, Super 1000,

September 12th-17th, China Hong Kong Open, Super 500.

There has been no competition in China for nearly three years. For domestic fans, it is undoubtedly the gospel of many fans to reopen the competition in 2023. The atmosphere of watching the ball on the spot is completely different, and I look forward to the re-launch of domestic competitions this year.

October

October 10th-15th, Finland Open, Super 500.

October 17th-22nd, Danish Open, Super 750.

October 24 -29, French Open, Super 750

October 31st-November 5th, German Hailu Open, Super 300.

In October, the competition returned to Europe, and the Danish Open and the French Open were at a higher level. At the same time, the Danish Open is also one of the events that everyone pays more attention to. However, for fans, it takes jet lag to watch the live broadcast of European events, and the events are very dense, but the excitement of these stops is really good.

November

November 7 -12, Korea Masters, Super 300

November 14th-19th, Japanese Masters, Super 500.

November 21st-26th, China Masters, Super 750.

November 28th-December 3rd, India’s Saimodi International Competition, Super 300.

There are also four races in November, but it is close to the end of the year. At the same time, back-to-back races are held, and the fatigue of many players is rising. It is easy for players to retire in these races.

The competition in December mainly focuses on the year-end finals, which will be held on December 13-18 at a location to be determined. The year-end finals, which is the last event of the year, will compete for the championship of the year-end finals with the top eight singles players or eight groups of doubles players, and each game will be splendid and not to be missed.

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Edit | Brother Feng

Text | AI Finance and Economics Society Jiang Jiao

Editor | Guo Luqing

Korean makeup ebbed, as if overnight.

Entering B1 floor of Beijing Joy City, the first thing you see is the China Beauty Collection Store on the right side of the shopping mall, where customers are choosing eye shadow and trying on lipstick. On the other hand, there is only a shopping guide who keeps drinking in the Korean beauty Yueshi Fengyun store, which is in stark contrast.

Since when did Korean beauty, which once had a halo on its head, become unpopular?

Everything is traceable. On March 8, ETUDE HOUSE closed all offline stores in China; INNISFREE, owned by another Korean cosmetics giant, Amore Pacific Construction Group, plans to close at least 90 stores in the mainland in 2020 due to huge losses; Earlier, THE FACE SHOP, a brand owned by LG Life Health, also withdrew from China.

A few years ago, with the popularity of popular Korean dramas such as Missing You, Descendants of the Sun and You from the Stars, Korean beauty cosmetics once occupied the makeup table of domestic girls. Now, in the trillion-dollar beauty market in China, Korean makeup has quietly retreated.

Korean makeup "failed" China

As a Korean makeup brand that was once popular among girls, it is embarrassing for Yidi House to shut down mainland stores. At present, although Edie House official website still displays information of 35 stores, butAI finance and economics societyThe reporter was informed that it has completed the offline store withdrawal in China.

This Korean makeup brand, which entered the China market with a sweet and fashionable image, was originally called Aili Cabin. At its peak, it opened 85 brand direct stores in 25 cities in the mainland, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the operating income of Yiti House fell by 38% to 111.3 billion won (about 640 million yuan), and recorded a large loss, making it the most bleak brand of its group, Amore Pacific.

In fact, the Yiti House, which was withdrawn from the store, is just a microcosm of the ebb tide of Korean beauty. Another once popular Korean brand, Fei Shi Xiao Shop, withdrew from the China market as early as 2018. Yue Shi Feng Yin, who belongs to Amore Pacific Construction Group and belongs to Yidi House, is also closing loss-making stores.

According to relevant statistics, from 2019 to 2020, Yueshi Fengyun closed nearly 130 loss-making stores in mainland China. In addition, many Korean cosmetics stores such as NATURE REPUBLIC and Skin Food have been cutting offline stores in recent years.

Behind the frequent store closures, it reflects the decline of Korean cosmetics brands. According to the data of Korea Cosmetics Industry Research Institute, during the five years from 2013 to 2017, the growth rate of Korean cosmetics exports to China was 66%, which dropped to 20% in 2018 and only 14% remained in 2019. The arrival of the epidemic has accelerated the decline of Korean cosmetics in China.

According to CCTV’s financial report, due to the epidemic situation, Korean cosmetics are caught in the dilemma of export sales. Many small and medium-sized enterprises in Korea stopped working and suffered serious losses. In addition, the performance of Korean makeup giant Amore Pacific Construction Group has fallen sharply. The group’s revenue in fiscal year 2020 dropped by 21.5% and its profit by 69.8%.

Korean makeup has declined, and a person who has been engaged in Korean makeup purchasing business for 7 years is deeply touched. In the first two years, this person specializes in low-end Korean makeup brands such as Yue Shi Feng Yin and Si Qin Skin. These brands entered the China market with the Korean Wave, and were loved by many girls with their high cost performance, which also brought them a lot of income. Now, due to the sharp drop in orders, he has turned to purchasing high-end skin care products in Europe and America.

Why can’t Korean makeup, which supports China girls’ face value, work?

In today’s beauty market in China, apart from some steady European, American and Japanese brands and the booming domestic beauty products, Korean beauty products are becoming less and less. Why can’t Korean makeup, which once propped up the "face" of China girls, work?

For Korean makeup, 2016 is a turning point of fate. Prior to this, Korean beauty brands were all the rage because of the prevalence of Korean culture in China.

In 2013, a movie "You from the Stars" was all over China. Gianna Jun, the heroine, used two Korean lipstick brands in the play, which were sold out of stock nationwide immediately after the play was broadcast. Until now, some experienced beauty users can still clearly remember the hard-to-find situation of "Star Your Color" lipstick.

The prevalence of Korean Wave directly promotes the promotion of Korean makeup in China. In 2014, Korean cosmetics exports to China increased by 89% year-on-year, reaching US$ 600 million, accounting for 31% of its total exports, ranking first in the world. Since then, China has become the largest importer of Korean cosmetics. Then the share of Korean cosmetics in the domestic market gradually increased.

However, since then, with the cooling of the Korean Wave, Korean makeup has gradually declined in the China market. At the same time, China local beauty brands began to rise, Japanese beauty brands returned to consumers’ sight, and the market share of European and American brands in China also increased significantly. Strong competitors and the rise of the e-commerce industry have accelerated the decline of Korean makeup.

Korean makeup was originally known for its fast online speed, rich SKU and affordable price. It is reported that in 2016, the research and development cycle of affordable Korean cosmetics products can be shortened to 4-6 months, which is ahead of the industry level of the general one-year research and development cycle. However, this advantage was soon surpassed by domestic beauty products. For example, the perfect diary of domestic beauty brands can maintain the new frequency of 5-6 items per month in order to get more timely and direct market feedback.

With the rise of more and more domestic beauty cosmetics, the market competition is becoming more and more fierce, and the operating pressure of Korean beauty cosmetics is also increasing. In order to compete for market share, some Korean cosmetics distribute goods in a short and fast way, ignoring the sustainable development of the brand, and the product quality and cosmetic effect have been repeatedly criticized.

In 2017, official website, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, announced 403 batches of food and cosmetics that were not allowed to enter. Among them, Lan Zhi, a beauty brand owned by Amore, was found to be susceptible to infection with Staphylococcus aureus. In 2018, the Korea Food and Drug Administration detected that there were 13 kinds of heavy metal antimony products in Amore’s 8 cosmetics brands.

In the little red book, many products of Yidi House were vomited by users. A girl who bought this brand of lipstick was even more bitter, complaining that the makeup was thick, difficult to apply evenly and smelled bad. Some insiders believe that the backwardness of Korean cosmetics lies not only in the product itself, but also in its failure to adapt to the changes in the China market.

It is difficult to form a trend again.

In fact, Korean beauty brands are not unaware of the crisis and have tried their best to save themselves.

However, the market structure of cosmetics in China has changed greatly, leaving few opportunities for Korean cosmetics.

Since 2019, Korean beauty giant LG Life Health has increased its digital marketing investment in China market. The group pays special attention to cultivating high-end brands such as post-Whoo, Sumi 37 and Ouhui, and cooperates with Viya, the head anchor, and invites Jiang Shuying, a popular actress, to be the image spokesperson of post-Whoo to boost the performance of mainland China.

Last year’s Double Eleven, after Whoo, the brand doubled its investment in live marketing. According to the data of ECdataway Dataway, during the pre-sale period of Double Eleven, after Whoo, the brand signed more than 130 anchors to bring goods, and the products appeared in more than 300 live broadcasts. During the pre-sale period, more than 80% of the pre-sale turnover after Whoo is guided by the live broadcast room.

In addition to high-end brands accelerating the layout of e-commerce channels, low-and medium-level brands have also begun to change their thinking and enter offline beauty collection stores. Previously, Yiti House once said that the closure of the store does not mean giving up the offline market. Later, in the China market, the colorist’s collection store will be the main offline position.

However, in contrast, domestic beauty products know the domestic market better, can grasp the changes in consumption trends more quickly, and occupy online channels earlier.

Domestic beauty cosmetics, represented by Perfect Diary, Flower Xizi and Orange Blossom, occupy consumers’ minds with faster new frequency and higher cost performance. Research data show that in 2020, the domestic cosmetic consumption market will account for 56%. 42% of consumers said that they would prefer to choose domestic cosmetics, and 90% of consumers said they would buy back domestic cosmetics in the future.

While Korean beauty products are still expanding their stores under the distress line, domestic beauty products have already used e-commerce platforms and social platforms to break the barriers of traditional marketing and achieve overtaking in corners. Now, whether you open Taobao, Little Red Book, Tik Tok E-commerce, bilibili and other platforms, you can see the domestic beauty products. In the first half of 2020, the content consumption of domestic brands on Xiaohongshu platform increased by 65.9% year-on-year, far exceeding European and American brands and Japanese, Korean and Thai brands.

"With the rise of national cultural self-confidence, a new generation of young consumers are more inclined to express their feelings and cultural attitudes through the’ national tide’, and are more willing to accept domestic beauty cosmetics planted on platforms such as Taobao Live, Tik Tok and Xiaohongshu, and are not easily influenced by Korean culture. Even if Korean high-end cosmetics still have some room for development in China, it is difficult to form a trend as before. " An industry veteran said.

This article was originally produced by AI Caijing Society, an account of Caijing Tianxia Weekly. Please don’t reprint it on any channel or platform without permission. Offenders will be prosecuted.

At present, the Chengdu World Table Tennis Championships, which has attracted the attention of table tennis fans all over the world, has decided the final king. China Guoping, the king of the world table tennis world, won the championship of men’s team and women’s team without accident. This result is also the embodiment of Guoping’s top strength. However, although the champion belongs to Guoping, for some defeated players of Guoping, they have to find something else to show their unconvinced. No, Japanese table tennis, which has been suppressed by national table tennis, came back to China, and the Japanese media released a list of male table tennis players in the World Table Tennis Championships. Funny thing is, in this list, Malone, who won all seven games in the World Table Tennis Championships, was directly ranked fourth. At present, Fan Zhendong, which ranks first in the world, is directly ignored by the Japanese media, and can’t even enter the top five. As for the number one player, I believe you should have guessed it.

Chengdu World Table Tennis Championships, as a major competition this season, almost all the top table tennis players in the world came to Chengdu to participate in this table tennis feast. As the host country and the top table tennis team in the world, Guoping is naturally the favorite of the champion. However, neither the men’s team nor the women’s team let the fans down. In their own home court, Guoping won two championships in a sweeping way. Of course, compared with the women’s team, there are still some waves in the men’s team’s championship.

In the semi-final with the Japanese men’s team, the China men’s team encountered the biggest challenge since the start of the game. Japan’s first brother, Chinese-American Zhang Benzhi, is in very good shape in this World Table Tennis Championships, especially in this Sino-Japanese table tennis semi-final. In order to test Wang Chuqin, the national table tennis coaching staff arranged for Wang Chuqin to serve as the second single against Zhang Benzhihe. Wang Chuqin, like Zhang Benzhihe, is a post-00 player, which can also be regarded as a confrontation between new forces in the future table tennis world. But what I didn’t expect was that Wang Chuqin lost completely in this post-00 showdown.

If Wang Chuqin’s loss is understandable, then the number one player in the world, the key player of China team, the loss of a single Fan Zhendong made the fans feel nervous. In the face of Zhang Benzhihe, Fan Zhendong lost his former swagger and was defeated by Zhang Benzhihe. In the end, although Guoping still relied on its overall strength, it eliminated the Japanese team and advanced to the final. However, this five-game game still made many fans sigh: Fortunately, there is only one Japanese team, Zhang Benzhi and He.

It was Zhang Benzhihe’s performance that completely stunned the Japanese media after the game. After the World Table Tennis Championships, the Japanese media "Tokyo Satellite TV" produced a ranking of men’s table tennis strength in the World Table Tennis Championships. To tell you the truth, this ranking is a bit interesting. He is convinced of the players’ victory in the World Table Tennis Championships as a basis for ranking. In other words, whoever wins more games will be in the top position. That’s right, there is such a funny situation. No one of the main players in table tennis can enter the top three. After all, the seven wins of seven battles, which are as strong as Malone’s, can only be ranked fourth because of too few wins. Fan Zhendong, the number one in the world, can’t even get into the top five in this ranking.

Not surprisingly, in this ranking, the number one player in Japan’s team is naturally Zhang Benzhi and He. He ranked first with 11 wins and 1 loss, and was called the strongest men’s singles player in this World Table Tennis Championships. The second place is Huang Zhen Ting, a Hong Kong player from China who scored 8 wins and 3 losses. The third place is Qiu Dang from Germany, whose record is 8 wins and 4 losses.

To be honest, this ranking is totally unreasonable. After all, because of the strength of national table tennis, all the five main players have strong strength, basically taking turns to play. In this way, Malone’s chances of playing will naturally be less. However, Malone only played seven games, but he won all. Just because he played a few games less than Zhang Benzhi, is he weaker than Zhang Benzhi in strength? It can only be said that this is just the self-satisfaction of the Japanese media, which specially found an angle that is beneficial to Japanese players to make such a ranking. However, it is difficult for them to think of such an angle.

Apple usually releases a new iPhone phone in September, such as the iPhone13 series of mobile phones introduced in September this year, except for the general iPhone mobile phone, Apple will also launch the iPhonese series mobile phone.

iPhonese series mobile phone is Apple’s low-cost iPhone mobile phone, using small screen design, iPhonese series mobile phone is also known for users, such as Apple’s iPhonese2 mobile phone, unfortunately iphonese2 Mobile phone does not support 5G Internet access.

According to foreign media Macrumors, the latest report, the latest report, showing Apple’s words in the first quarter of next year, and the specific time is expected to be launched at the end of March next year.

According to Apple, I broke the news, the new iPhone is designed in appearance or the iPhone old model, based on iPhone8, equipped with a 4.7-inch screen.

Of course, the IPHONESE series is not its highlight. The brightest of the iPhonese series is hardware configuration and cheap prices. The iPhonese3 mobile phone will be equipped with more powerful processors to support 5G Internet, iPhonese3 mobile phone will be equipped with A15 processor Gao Tong X60 modem, iPhonese3 mobile phone is expected to be the cheapest 5G version of iPhone.