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People with normal vision read by light. The white paper is brighter and the black words are darker, so the naked eye can distinguish the words between light and dark.

What does the visually impaired read? One is by touch, and there are blind documents to touch. One is hearing. When some books are not translated into Braille, maybe you can find audio books.

If you can’t find a ready-made audio book, how can the blind read an ordinary printed book?

As early as 1913, Edmund Fournier d’Albe, a physicist at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, showed a scanner to help the blind listen to books, named "Optophone" (photoelectric reading device). A few years later, the equipment was transformed into a more practical version by a scientific instrument manufacturer.

In 1920, the magazine reported Scientific American.

When the machine sweeps a line of words from left to right, there will be a sound in the user’s headphones. However, the sound is not speech, but a combination of some notes.

Write the word "write" with notes.

Different note combinations represent different glyphs. For example, the letter T has a horizontal direction and a vertical direction, the horizontal direction is represented by a monosyllabic elongation, and the vertical direction is represented by a chord. The notes used here are the highest to SOH and the lowest to the lowest octave SOH.

The note corresponding to the letter t, Tiffany Chan

The height of the notes reflects the position of the ink on the paper: one horizontal of the T is at the top, just lengthen the highest note SOH, while one vertical of the T has ink from top to bottom, so you can play the five notes of SOH, FAH, MI, ME and DOH at the same time, which is a chord.

Then, when the letter T appears, the earphone should first emit a continuous SOH, with a short chord in the middle, and finally return to the continuous SOH. A letter, a word or a paragraph can be "written" with a string of notes:

The note combination corresponding to the word "Type" is Tiffany Chan.

As long as you are familiar with the correspondence between letters and note strings in advance, the blind can hear the contents of a book.

Translating glyphs into notes is not complicated in terms of rules, but it is only part of the work of this machine. Before that, it must first see what font is printed on the book before it can begin to translate.

Therefore, automatically scanning text is the most important thing.

Selenium can see black and white.

At the beginning, the naked eye can distinguish the words on the paper by light. The light returning from black letters is very weak, not as strong as the reflection of white paper. But how does the machine achieve similar perception?

Scientists thought of selenium, and the resistance of this substance will change with the intensity of light. Connect batteries on both sides of selenium. When the light hits the ink mark and then reflects to the surface of selenium, the resistance of selenium will be larger, and the current passing through it will be smaller. When light is reflected from the blank of the paper to the surface of selenium, the resistance of selenium will be smaller, and the current passing through it will be stronger.

The two sides of selenium are connected with a power supply, and the current is different with or without lighting [1]

Different lighting conditions will transform different electrical signals, so selenium can be used as a photodetector. When it sweeps a line of words from left to right, the signal strength will change with the alternation of black and white, which is not difficult to understand. The question is, how does the machine know whether the ink position is high or low, such as whether T is above or below?

Use different beams to scan different positions. If you divide a line of words into five layers, you need five different beams of light to scan it. The so-called different light means that each beam of light hits the surface of selenium to produce a unique electrical signal, which is different from other beams of light. Only in this way can we tell how high the light is calling from.

Divide a line of words into five layers [1]

So how do you divide a beam of light into five different beams?

Here is a porous disk with five holes. When the disc rotates at a speed of 30 revolutions per second, a beam of light is knocked over, and the light passing through the disc is divided into five beams, which are five intermittent (or fast flashing) lights.

Porous disc, Wikimedia Commons, reference [1]

When light is reflected to the surface of selenium intermittently, the current passing through selenium will fluctuate. The current fluctuation caused by these five beams of light is different: because the number of holes in five circles is different, the more holes, the more frequently the light is cut off and the higher the frequency of current fluctuation.

So there were five different beams of light. If they are hit at different positions, we can judge whether the light is reflected from a high place or a low place according to the frequency of current fluctuation. It’s not difficult to tell the difference between a horizontal T and a horizontal T.

The disc divides the light into five different beams.

The notes that users hear are also distributed according to the frequency of current fluctuation.

As for what tools to use to sense the fluctuation of current, the sensor in the telephone receiver can be competent. With the technology at that time, current fluctuations as small as 10-6 amps can be detected.

Is it black or white?

Wit, you may find that according to the principle described above, the strong current signal is the blank, and the weak signal is the ink mark. So, the notes that users hear represent not the ink, but the gaps around the ink?

This was the case with the original products in 1913, and those notes that the user did not hear indicated the location of the ink. When the spaces between words are scanned, all the notes will play together. Therefore, the inventor called it "White-Sounding Optophone".

The combination of notes it plays is so complicated that Mary Jameson, the best user, is trained to read only one word a minute on average. But she still became the first blind person to read ordinary printed books.

In 1918, Barr & Stroud, a manufacturer of scientific instruments, improved the equipment and added a second photosensitive element made of selenium to the photoelectric detector. After the light passes through the disc, part of the light still scans the text and reflects to the first photosensitive element; The other part of the light is directly turned to the second photosensitive element without scanning the text.

Add one more photosensitive element. Popular Science

By combining the signals of the two photosensitive elements, the signal of the blank part can be cancelled. In this way, the notes played by headphones represent ink and letter shapes, while the blank parts are muted. This version is also called "Black-Sounding Optophone".

Of course, its advantage is not only that the combination of notes becomes simple. The structure of the original equipment is fragile. Even if someone walks by heavily, some components may slide to the wrong position, which will affect the normal scanning. The improved equipment is much more stable.

In addition, the improved version also adds the function of adjusting the scanning speed, which can scan a line at the fastest time of 5 seconds and at the slowest time of 5 minutes. Users can choose the speed according to their proficiency in recognizing notes.

Mary jameson is reading Walden Lake.

Mary jameson also used an improved version of this "black voice". Later, her reading speed reached 60 words per minute. Mary became a heavy user of photoelectric reading devices from her school days to her later years.

But for most people, the combination of notes may still sound too complicated. Moreover, some letters with similar shapes, such as "u" and "n", are easily confused. In addition to using the threshold, the price is also prohibitive. 35 pounds in 1920 is about 1,500 pounds (about 13,000 RMB) or more today.

In 1920, the average price of a house in London was about 320 pounds.

In addition, the British Association for the Blind was trying to popularize Braille resources to the whole country, and the photoelectric reading device may pose a threat to the promotion of Braille, and it will not be supported by the association, and the sales volume has been pitiful.

However, commercial failure does not necessarily mean technical failure.

Technology that anyone may need.

In 1949, the engineers of RCA borrowed the principle of photoelectric reading device to create a new reading machine for the blind.

RCA reading machine, which can play the pronunciation of letters, such as "A-"[5]

It also needs to strike the light on the paper and then reflect it on the photoelectric element, thus distinguishing the shapes of letters; It also has a horn, which is responsible for shouting the corresponding sound.

However, the light-emitting device is no longer a lamp with a porous disk, but a cathode ray tube; The photoelectric element is no longer selenium, but photocell; What the trumpet calls out is no longer a note representing a glyph, but a real letter.

Most importantly, there is an additional component in the middle called "electronic analyzer". After receiving the signal from the photoelectric element, it has to pick out the letter that matches the signal from 26 letters before it can command the speaker to read it.

A mainstream view holds that this is the first device in the world that can complete the Optical Character Recognition (OCR) task.

Photo translation AFP

Later, with the development of computer technology, OCR algorithm became more and more sophisticated. Nowadays, artificial intelligence/machine learning has injected a handful of souls into OCR.

Nowadays, OCR serves more than blind people. There may be a moment when everyone needs to copy a large paragraph of text in a picture, or take pictures of foreign characters and throw them directly to translation software. People even think that it is a matter of course to use such technology.

But the first person who made the concept of OCR possible may be Dr Edmund Founier Dalbet, who invented the photoelectric reading device more than 100 years ago.

references

[1] d’Albe, E. E. F. (1924). The Moon-element: An Introduction to the Wonders of Selenium. TF Unwin.

[2] Thomas, E. (2021, June 23). A Century Ago, the Optophone Allowed Blind People to Hear the Printed Word. IEEE Spectrum. https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-history/dawn-of-electronics/ a-century-ago-the-optophone-allowed-blind-people-to-hear-the-printed-word

[3] d’Albe, E. F. (1914). On a type-reading optophone. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 90(619), 373-375.

[4] Jameson, M. (1966). The Optophone: Its beginning and development. Bulletin of prosthetics research, 5, 25.

[5] Mann, M. (1949). Reading machine spells out loud. Popular Science, 154(2), 125-7.

[6] Chan, T., Mills, M., & Sayers, J. (2018). Optophonic reading, prototyping optophones. Amodern, (8).

[7] Cooper, F. S., Gaitenby, J. H., & Nye, P. W. (1984). Evolution of reading machines for the blind: Haskins Laboratories’ research as a case history. Veterans Administration, Department of Medicine and Surgery, Rehabilitation R & D Service.

作者：栗子

原标题：《100年前的盲人，怎样读完一本普通印刷书？》

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　　CCTV News:The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a red rainstorm warning at 10: 00 on July 30. Since July 29, there have been heavy rainstorms in central and southern Hebei, central and southern Beijing, Tianjin, eastern Shanxi, central and northern Henan, and central and western Shandong, heavy rainstorms in parts of central and southern Hebei, northern Henan, eastern Shanxi, and western Shandong, and heavy rainstorms (250-540 mm) in parts of central and southern Hebei, along mountains in central and southern Hebei, and northwest Henan.

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　　Defense guide:

　　1, the government and relevant departments in accordance with their duties to do a good job in emergency and rescue work against heavy rain;

　　2. Stop the assembly, suspend classes or business (except for special industries);

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　　6月1日出版的第11期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席最高领袖的重要文章《中国式现代化是中国共产党领导的社会主义现代化》。

　　文章强调，党的二十大报告明确指出：“中国式现代化，是中国共产党领导的社会主义现代化。”这是对中国式现代化定性的话，是管总、管根本的。党的领导直接关系中国式现代化的根本方向、前途命运、最终成败。

　　文章指出，党的领导决定中国式现代化的根本性质。党的性质宗旨、初心使命、信仰信念、政策主张决定了中国式现代化是社会主义现代化，而不是别的什么现代化。我们党始终高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜，坚定不移地走中国特色社会主义道路，确保中国式现代化在正确的轨道上顺利推进。我们党坚持把马克思主义作为根本指导思想，不断开辟马克思主义中国化时代化新境界，为中国式现代化提供科学指引。我们党坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度，为中国式现代化稳步前行提供坚强制度保证。我们党坚持和发展中国特色社会主义文化，为中国式现代化提供强大精神力量。只有毫不动摇坚持党的领导，中国式现代化才能前景光明、繁荣兴盛；否则，中国式现代化就会偏离航向、丧失灵魂，甚至犯颠覆性错误。

　　The article points out that the party’s leadership ensures that the goal of Chinese modernization is stable and far-reaching. Our party has always adhered to its original mission, determined to seek happiness for the people of China and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, persisted in unifying lofty ideals and phased goals, and continued to struggle, struggle hard and struggle unremittingly. Since the reform and opening up, our goal of building a socialist modern country has been gradual and consistent, and has been enriched and improved with the development of practice. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China drew a clearer picture of the goal of China’s development by 2035, and scientifically described the grand blueprint for building a socialist modernization power in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way. Building a socialist modern country is the consistent goal of our party, which has been pushed forward from generation to generation, and has continuously achieved brilliant achievements that attract worldwide attention and shine in history.

　　The article points out that the party’s leadership has inspired a strong driving force for building Chinese modernization. Reform and opening up is a key measure to determine the fate of contemporary China, and it is also a key measure to determine the success or failure of Chinese modernization. After the reform and opening-up, our party has continuously promoted the system reform in various fields, and formed and developed a vibrant system and mechanism that conforms to the national conditions of contemporary China. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, with great political courage, our party has comprehensively deepened the reform, broken through the shackles of ideological concepts, broken through the barriers of solidification of interests, and resolutely eliminated the shortcomings of various institutional mechanisms. The reform has changed from local exploration and breakthrough to system integration and comprehensive deepening, and many fields have achieved historic changes, systematic reshaping and overall reconstruction, injecting inexhaustible power into Chinese modernization.

　　The article points out that the party’s leadership embodies the majestic power of building Chinese modernization. Our party deeply understands that Chinese modernization is the cause of hundreds of millions of people, and the people are the main body of Chinese modernization. We must rely on the people closely, respect their creative spirit, and pool the wisdom and strength of all the people to promote the continuous development of Chinese modernization. We adhere to the party’s mass line and strive to win the heartfelt support of the people for the party’s theory, line, principles and policies. We adhere to the people’s yearning for a better life as the goal of struggle, adhere to the people-centered development thinking, and let the achievements of Chinese modernization benefit all the people more and more fairly. Our party develops people’s democracy in the whole process, ensuring that the people manage state affairs, economic and cultural undertakings and social affairs through various channels and forms according to law, and devote themselves enthusiastically to modernization with the spirit of ownership. Our party inspires, inspires and inspires people with the beautiful vision of Chinese modernization, and condenses the majestic power of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.

Original, Wang Shuaiguo, Economic Observer

Landmap Dreamers are facing a much narrower MPV market, and there are a large number of luxury and joint venture competitors competing for the market cake. In this context, can Landmap Dreamers really "realize their dreams"?

Author: Wang Shuaiguo

Seal picture: official website picture

Lantu cars are "desperate" on the road to high-end. When the first car, Lantu FREE, was far from opening the market, a second car, Lantu Dreamer, was launched.

The Landscape Dreamer is an MPV, and its pre-sale price is beyond many expectations. The pre-sale price of the seven-seat version is 380,000 yuan – 480,000 yuan, and the pre-sale price of the four-seat version is 600,000 yuan. The new car is expected to be officially launched in the second quarter, and deliveries will start as soon as July.

380,000 start, up to more than 600,000 yuan, has never before had any independent brand models can be sold to such a high price range.

It is well known that Landu’s first car, Landu FREE, is targeted at medium and large SUVs, which is a relatively popular market, but even so, Landu FREE did not sell well.

In contrast, Lantu Dreamers faced a much narrower MPV market, and there were a large number of luxury and joint venture competitors competing for the market cake. Under such a background, could Lantu Dreamers really "realize their dreams"?

The product route is questionable

Before the Dreamer, Lantu Auto launched its first model, Lantu FREE, in June last year. The car is positioned as a performance-level intelligent electric SUV, focusing on high-end configurations such as extended-range power and air suspension. It is the first self-owned brand passenger car model of Dongfeng Motor Group priced more than 300,000.

Landmap officials are full of confidence in the first car. However, the market performance of Landmap FREE did not meet expectations, and sales continued to decline shortly after its launch. From December 2021 to February 2022, the delivery of Landmap cars fell from more than 3,000 to more than 700. In March, the delivery of Landmap cars rebounded to 1,400. After half a year on the market, the cumulative delivery volume was barely over 10,000. In addition, Landmap has not yet released the delivery data for April.

The reason is that Dongfeng Motor Group has always lacked the genes to build a high-end brand, and Lantu’s own brand positioning is vague, which has made Lantu FREE cold in the popular SUV market. As a comparison, the same as the extended-range electric SUV, the ideal monthly delivery volume of ONE reached the highest 10,000 units, and even the sales volume of Cyrus, which was not optimistic before, exceeded 3,000 units in March and April. Lantu FREE became a de facto "loser".

Just as the first model, Lantu FREE, had not yet established itself, Lantu cars rushed into the MPV field, which made the industry question its product route. There are even opinions that Lantu’s move is to "change the track".

In this regard, Lantu Automobile CEO and CTO Lu responded on Weibo on the second day of the Dreamer’s pre-sale in early April, proposing that there are many pain points and needs in the domestic MPV market, including consumers’ high requirements for low-carbon travel and intelligence; consumption upgrades, the demand for multi-person travel brought about by changes in China’s family structure; most MPVs in the market have safety hazards, and the driver’s seat and second row comfort are not enough.

"We are both enterprises and users, we understand these pain points and needs, and we want to provide solutions," Mr. Lu said.

"Landmap believes that the market needs a travel product that can reflect the corporate image, but also comfortable and safe enough to meet the needs of reception, commuting and business trips, and provide a full-scene comfortable experience. However, in the current market, there is no MPV that is truly comfortable and safe, and even most MPVs cannot reach the passing line." At the same time, with the emergence of more and more families with two and three children, the requirements for vehicles for family travel are also getting higher and higher. However, when cars and SUVs have fully entered the era of intelligence and electrification, MPVs are still stuck on the traditional fuel platform of the last century.

Based on this judgment, Landmap Dreamer targets its audience at "high-end business people who pursue low-carbon travel and new backbone who pursue technology and comfortable family travel experiences".

According to Lantu officials, Lantu Dreamer started pre-sale on April 7, and as of April 9, orders have exceeded 3,000 units. Compared with Lantu FREE, which received 3,689 orders in 43 days, the development prospects of Dreamer seem to be better.

Some of the orders received so far have made Lantu Auto have positive market expectations for Dreamers. "We are full of confidence in sales, and at the same time, we also pay more attention to the user experience than sales. The advantage experience of smart electric vehicles compared with traditional fuel vehicles is completely out of date. We look forward to exploring and leading this consumption trend with consumers who embrace smart electric technology," said the above-mentioned Lantu insider.

Crowded MPV market

Whether the MPV market is a new blue ocean that is about to break out, or whether the market is still a small marginal field, there has been controversy in this industry.

The development of the domestic MPV market has experienced a trough in recent years. Public data show that since 2017, domestic MPV sales have continued to decline. By 2020, the annual sales volume has only 1.054 million, only 40% of 2016.

This is not unrelated to the decline in the overall domestic auto market. However, the continuous decline in the willingness of young people to marry and have children has also become an important driving force for the decline in sales of MPV models with large space and high fuel consumption. However, based on the rise of the domestic middle class and the emergence of consumption upgrades, as well as the introduction of the national "three-child policy", some industry experts believe that the MPV market, especially the mid-to-high-end MPV market, is about to explode.

Zhou Lijun, president and chief analyst of the Easy Car Research Institute, said that in 2020, the increase in demand for the domestic car market has accounted for 60% of the total consumption, and this trend will accelerate in the future. Because the main group of people buying cars in the Chinese market is not young people, but middle-aged people with old and young people, especially those with two children at home, they will be more suitable for buying MPVs.

In 2021, there have indeed been several waves of MPV models coming together in China. For example, at the Chengdu Auto Show held at the end of August of that year, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Yueda Kia (now renamed Kia Automobile) and Beijing Hyundai launched three joint venture brands, Saina, Ka Hua, and Kusitu. Three fuel MPVs were launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show in November. At the same time, Lantu Dreamer, SAIC MAXUS MIFA 9, and Hechuang Automobile’s electric MPV concept car Concept-M.

Driven by these new models, domestic MPV model sales in 2021 stopped falling and rebounded. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s MPV sales reached 1.055 million in 2021, an increase of 0.09% year-on-year. However, the results of 1 million cars only accounted for 4.02% of the country’s total automobile sales, and MPVs were still on the edge of the automobile market.

From January to March this year, the cumulative sales of domestic MPV models 204,000, down 7.8% year-on-year. During the same period, the sales of cars and SUVs rose by 8.4% and 10.4% year-on-year respectively, and the MPV market does not seem to be showing signs of breaking out. Some market participants said that in the case of the epidemic affecting the income of ordinary people, compact cars and SUVs are once again sought after by consumers, and the sales prospects of high-end cars and large cars are not ideal.

In the narrow MPV track, Lantu dreamers want to cut their way through the cracks of strong opponents such as Buick GL8 and Toyota Saina. Whether it is "courageous" or "reckless" is also full of controversy.

600,000 yuan worth of "Mystery Confidence"

For many years, the mainstream price range of independent brand models is concentrated below 300,000 yuan. More strictly speaking, below 200,000 yuan is the mainstream price range of independent brands. But in the past two years, with the rise of independent brands and the emergence of new energy high-end brands, prices have gradually developed upward.

For example, the high-end brands represented by Geely Lynk & Co and Great Wall Wei brand broke into the price range of more than 200,000 yuan. And the new energy brands represented by NIO and Ideal have further broken through the high-end market above 300,000. Some models have exceeded 500,000 yuan, such as NIO ES8 to 600,000 yuan, Lynk & Co 09 also reached 400,000 yuan.

Lantu brand is also one of the new brands that follow the trend of independent brands to develop new energy high-end, and it also has the impulse of brand upward and price upward. But from the pre-sale price of Lantu Dreamers, 380,000 yuan starts to 600,000 yuan, not only does it have a large price span, but compared with the price of Lantu FREE 313,600-373,600 yuan, it is almost "leap-up", and there is a huge price gap between the two. Therefore, what does Lantu Dreamers use to support their worth of 600,000 yuan?

There is a view that the pre-sale of Lantu Dreamer for 600,000 yuan is just a symbolic meaning, highlighting the brand height, and the real volume is the model in the 400,000 yuan range. But even so, Lantu Dreamer still has many difficulties in convincing consumers to pay. Its first task is how to convince consumers not to choose Buick GL8, Toyota Saina, or Mercedes-Benz V, Lexus LM, but to choose an independent electric MPV.

From the perspective of product hard power, the length, width and height of the Landscape Dreamer are 5315mm, 1980mm, 1810mm, and the wheelbase is 3200mm. As a comparison, the above four parameters of the Buick GL8 ES Lu Zun are all smaller than those of the Landscape Dreamer. Therefore, in terms of interior space, the Landscape Dreamer is slightly better. However, the larger size also increases the difficulty of turning and parking for the Landscape Dreamer.

In terms of power, the Lantu Dreamer, like the Lantu FREE, adopts an extended range and pure electric dual-power layout. The extended range version adopts the 1.5T four-cylinder extended range internal combustion engine developed by Dongfeng, with a maximum power of 185 horsepower and a total power of 395 horsepower for the front and rear axle motors. The dual-motor pure electric version has a total power of 435 horsepower and a 100-kilometer acceleration of 5.9 seconds. The Buick GL8 ES Lu Zun uses a 2.0-liter inline four-cylinder turbocharged engine with a maximum power of 237 horsepower. In comparison, the power parameters of the Lantu Dreamer comprehensively surpass the Buick GL8.

In terms of chassis performance, the Lantu Dreamer is equipped with an aluminum alloy front double wisharm, rear five-bar linkage, and adaptive air suspension chassis. The 2022 Buick GL8 ES Luzun uses a front-enhanced McPherson suspension and a rear four-bar independent suspension chassis system. In contrast, it is clear that the front and rear suspension configurations of the Lantu Dreamer are better, and due to the presence of air suspension, the Lantu Dreamer has better vehicle passage and convenience of getting on and off the vehicle (the vehicle chassis can be adjusted from the ground).

In terms of technology selling points, Lantu Dreamer focuses on air suspension, CDC (continuous shock absorption control system) and "magic carpet function". The "magic carpet function" refers to the vehicle’s ability to use intelligent technology to monitor and analyze road conditions in advance, give real-time feedback and adaptively buffer shock absorption. Officials claim that this function is "superior to luxury brand MPV models such as Lexus LM and Mercedes-Benz V-Class".

In addition, Lantu Dreamer also has zero-gravity wide-fit seats, three-zone smart air conditioners, baby-grade skin-friendly fabrics, Danah sound system and other configurations, 26 intelligent driving auxiliary features, ECALL collision intelligent rescue system and OTA upgrade functions for the whole vehicle. In this regard, the 2022 Buick GL8 ES Lu Zun is also rich in configuration, and the two seem to be on par.

The above-mentioned Lantu automotive insider told the Economic Observer Network that compared with the existing luxury MPVs on the market, Lantu Dreamer has built its core competitiveness of "electrification" and "intelligence".

In terms of electrification, Landmap Dreamer is the world’s first dual-power new energy MPV. Among them, the pure electric version solves the licensing problem in first-tier cities, and the super-extended range version completely eliminates mileage anxiety while bringing pure electric quiet experience and low fuel consumption. In terms of intelligence, Landmap Dreamer is built on ESSA’s native intelligent electric architecture, the world’s first Gigabit 5G vehicle network, and has L2 + level intelligent driving assistance capabilities.

Overall, with multiple advantages such as size, power, and chassis configuration, Lantu Dreamer has abandoned the low-price strategy used by its own brands in the MPV market, and adopted a breakthrough strategy of competing with luxury and joint venture models with the strength of the whole vehicle. In other words, Lantu wants to "redefine the high-end luxury MPV".

But the problem is that the good reputation and inherent image accumulated by Buick GL8, Mercedes-Benz V-Class and other models in the market for a long time are like an insurmountable wall. It is not easy for Lantu dreamers to bypass or break this wall.

Spiritual settlement in the epidemic

May Fourth Youth Zhu Baoquan

Developers auction new houses from 1 yuan

Original title: "300,000 SUV has not sold well, how to sell 600,000 MPV?"

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A good actor can enter the play in one second no matter how harsh the conditions are. In the eleventh episode of Zhejiang Satellite TV’s OPPO "I am an Actor", the actors brought everyone a new surprise in their acting skills through a short improvisation, which amazed everyone. In addition, the actors’ wonderful competition in the works "Struggle", "Days of Leaving Lei Feng" and "Step by Step" also won praise from the whole network. The surprise birth of the top 9 has detonated the audience’s expectations for the new stage of drama. Many netizens said that "I am excited when I think about it, and the hard-hitting acting competition is set."

Enter Blueberry Video to watch the latest full video of "I Am the Actor" > >

Wang Yang, Tu Songyan, and Zhang Junping’s extreme interpretation made netizens call it "enjoyable"

After Han Xue and Liu Huan successfully advanced to the top 9, Wang Yang, Tu Songyan, and Zhang Junjun also stood out with their extreme performances that were beyond the past. While the three got the direct promotion quota, they also received praise from netizens. "The mentors are really the elites selected by the elites, and these three actors have no problem advancing." "A week has not been in vain, and it is too enjoyable to watch you play." And the breakthrough performances of Li Landy, Jin Shijia, Song Yi, Li Qian, Jingchao, and Tan Jianji were praised by netizens as "the real force in the future".

In addition to the excellent performance in the competition, the actors’ impromptu performances in this issue are also full of excitement. At the scene, the portrayal of ************* Landy, and Jin Shijia as "speech impediments" infected everyone, and some netizens marveled that "it turns out that you can use your acting skills to achieve empathy without lines"; Tu Songyan, Song Yi, and Li Qian’s "tongue twister lines" made many people praise "good actors can really enter any situation"; Zhang Junjun, Jingchao, and Danjianzi’s "Lonely Train" made the audience see more possibilities in their acting skills.

The surprise of the top 9 "actors" was born, and the new stage of the drama detonated the audience’s expectations

In the end, Zhang Ziyi chose to resurrect the "fearsome" Li Landy, while Wu Xiubo gave the resurrection right to Song Yi, who had the courage to challenge himself. The netizens sighed, "Sister Landy, don’t cry, looking forward to a bigger breakthrough between you and Song Yi, both actors are dark horses in my heart." Some audience members encouraged the eliminated actors, "It’s great to have the courage to walk on this stage and accept the test of acting skills."

It is worth mentioning that Li Qian subverted the previous "villain" portrayal and also gained the only benefit of "actor recommendation" Zhang Guoli. In the show, Li Qian and Tu Songyan, who was directly promoted, were only two votes apart, and their superb acting skills were obvious to all. Some netizens affirmed that "Li Qian’s acting skills are worthy of this surprise, and the spring of good actors has really come, borrowing from Brother Shanzheng’s words." So far, the surprise of the top 9 of "I Am an Actor" was born, and many audience members laughed and said, "It is hard to imagine how wonderful the next drama will be, but they are ready to close their eyes and blow."

What exciting moments will the top 9 actors present in the new competition system? Who will get the "ticket" to the finals? Please look forward to next Saturday (December 1st) at 20:15 Zhejiang Satellite TV OPPO "I am an actor".

　　[Smart Car News] On August 17, BYD Tang 2021 was officially launched, with three models: fuel version, DM version and EV version. It is worth noting that the Tang EV version is equipped with BYD’s latest blade battery and will be delivered to customers in the fourth quarter of this year.

　　BYD Tang 2021 still adopts Dragon Face family-style design and matrix dzi headlights in appearance design, with fine-tuning in details such as front grille, rims and decorative strips. In addition, this car also has popular design elements such as suspended roof and penetrating taillights.

　　In terms of interior, BYD Tang 2021 is equipped with a 15.6-inch suspended central control display and a 12.3-inch full LCD instrument panel, as well as DiLink 3.0 intelligent networking system. This car is equipped with a 2.0T turbocharged engine, and the DM version is equipped with a powertrain consisting of a 2.0T turbocharged engine and a motor. The comprehensive maximum power of the system is 321kW. The pure electric version is equipped with BYD’s latest blade battery.

Produce Miao Miao tou APP

Author Li Geng

Toutu, vision china

In the deep case of last November, "Why is Cyrus’ financial report still deteriorating? ",Miao tou once gave a conclusion based on the analysis of depth-Huawei was very strong, but at that time it still couldn’t make up for Cyrus’ own shortcomings.

The reason is also very simple:Although Celestial achieved the reversal of the sales trend by "configuration adjustment+70,000 yuan sharp price reduction" for the new M7 at the end of 2023, overall, the deep cooperation with Huawei did not help Celestial to establish its "high-end+high gross profit" brand positioning.

The decline of the brand in the world from "luxury" to "mainstream" immediately caused Cyrus to directly fall into the "quagmire" that all new car-making forces have to face:Without price reduction, there is no sales volume, and the scale can increase. However, because the scale is not large enough and the average cost decreases slowly, it is very difficult for the financial level to achieve a break-even point, let alone realize the benign development of car companies.

The trend of Celestial in the following months (red arrow) also confirmed our judgment. Although the sales volume of the new M7 soared for several months in a row, its share price actually went down in November, with the largest retracement reaching 37.6%, exceeding 32.4% of the whole vehicle sector in the same period.

By February of this year, the share price of Cyrus had another obvious change: first, it rose directly by 59.5% in more than a month.(Blue arrow), from a low of less than 60 yuan/share to a high of more than 100 yuan/share; Then from mid-March, it continued to decline, with a cumulative withdrawal of 17.6%, and now it is less than 90 yuan/share.(green arrow).

Let Cyrus go out of the clear upward share price, which is the brand-new flagship product M9 that it officially began to deliver this year. Numerous data show that it has achieved incredible performance figures in the industry. The sharp shock in the market also shows that there are still doubts and differences in the market about this product, including the changes it can bring to Celeste.

Under the premise that the detailed data of the 2023 annual report will not be released until the end of April, why did Cyrus’ share price rise ahead of schedule? Why is M9 a "miracle" for Cyrus? How should Cyrus’ performance in 2024 be expected? How should we adjust our expectations for Cyrus and some new car-making forces?Today we will focus on these three issues.

Why did Cyrus turn upside down?

As early as the end of January this year, Cyrus announced the expected loss of its performance in 2023: it is estimated that the operating income will reach 35.5 billion yuan to 36.5 billion yuan in 2023, up by 4.09% to 7.02% year-on-year; The net profit loss of returning to the mother was 2.1 billion yuan to 2.7 billion yuan, which was narrower than the loss of 3.832 billion yuan in 2022; After deducting non-profit, the net profit loss is 4.6 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, and the loss of 4.296 billion yuan in 2022 is still increasing.

According to this caliber, combined with the relevant financial data of Cyrus in the first three quarters of last year, it is not difficult to calculate the approximate range of Cyrus’ fourth quarter revenue and non-net profit deduction.

In the fourth quarter alone, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, Cyrus’ revenue and non-net profit have achieved good growth: year-on-year, revenue increased by 75.9%, and the ratio of loss-making revenue shrank by 29.1%; Under the ring-on-ring caliber, revenue increased by 242.1%, and the ratio of loss revenue decreased by 53.8%.

Source: Car owners’ home

The substantial improvement of Cyrus’ ring caliber is the result of its recent strategy, which can be summarized in one sentence-Do everything you can to increase the sales of the new M7, even if you directly suppress your own lower-end M5, even if you sell one, you will lose one.

The "crazy profit-making" has brought two results. One is the apparent loss of profit: in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, Cyrus accumulated more than 2 billion yuan on the new M7. If the first quarter of 2024 is added, the total amount of "profit-making" will reach 5 billion yuan. However, as the sales volume of the new M7 began to climb, the production and manufacturing assembly line of Cyrus began to operate efficiently, and its average vehicle cost began to decline.

According to the estimated financial results in the fourth quarter and the historical sales volume of Celestial Group, the new M7 has realized the positive adjustment of non-net profit deducted from cars in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The first two quarters of 2023, and the fourth quarter.(estimated value)The deduction of non-net profit performance is similar(-1.885 billion yuan,-1.785 billion yuan); Non-Cyrus brand in two time periods(everything except asking the world)The sales figures are also very close.(19,000 vehicles, 17,300 vehicles). In other words, during these two periods, the Celeste brand basically realized the zero deduction of non-net profit.

Corresponding to the specific vehicle type, it is the result of selling 7,000 vehicles less than the M5 and 49,000 vehicles more than the M7. It is certainly unrealistic for these two models to "break even" at the same time, which can only be "M5 lost and M7 earned".Combined with the ratio of the number of sales changes, it should be "M7 earns thousands, M5 loses tens of thousands".

Cyrus could have made more and more profits as long as it continued to produce and sell M7, but obviously other car companies did not intend to let Cyrus enjoy the market segment of about 250,000 yuan, 5 seats and 7 seats, giving priority to household use and highlighting the intelligent SUV products.

The ideal came straight to the world of inquiry, and the price of M7 in the world of inquiry has been adjusted, dropping by 20,000 yuan.

Take L6, the first brand-new model with a price below 300,000 yuan, which was released last week as an example, not only aimed at the new M7 in product design and positioning, but also directly set the starting price consistent with that before the new M7. The ideal "name-calling match" left Cyrus no choice but to directly reduce the price of the new M7 by 20,000 yuan in early April this year.

The operation of price reduction has once again "guaranteed" the next sales volume of the new M7, but it will inevitably turn the non-profit "earning thousands" of the M7 bicycle deduction into "losing thousands to more than 10,000" again, and make the break-even point of the new M7 move back again.

Besides M7, M5, which was "strategically abandoned" at the end of last year, is about to return. At the "2024 Beijing Auto Show" held this week, Sailis will re-release "Ask the M5". Judging from the previous information, the new M5 will probably follow the old path that the new M7 has taken. Impact the market through "adjustment of configuration+substantial price reduction". The price is definitely lower than M7, and it is closer to the positioning of mainstream products of many independent car companies, which makes M5 destined to become a difficult challenge again.

Obviously, although the product combination of "M5+M7" still has the ability to bring sufficient sales to Cyrus, it is unlikely to bear the burden of "making profits". If you don’t want to end up making money at a loss, Cyrus must find a new way out.

The listing of the M9 at this critical time not only provided a new outlet for Sailis, but also opened a new stage of China Automobile, which was a "miracle".

M9, why can it be called a "miracle"?

There are two main reasons why M9 is called "miracle":

Let’s talk about the sales figures first. On April 11th, at the Huawei HarmonyOS Spring Eco-communication New Product Launch Conference, Yu Chengdong announced two big figures: the cumulative big figure of M7 was 174,000, and the big figure of M9 exceeded 70,000.

At the end of last year, the propaganda offensives of both Cyrus and Huawei were full, and a large number of publicity was carried out several times.

Although since last year, Huawei has been constantly updating big figures and publishing posters through all channels, it is a bit annoying to encourage more consumers to buy the new M7. However, combined with the big figures, sales trends and insurance volume data published by the new M7, the big data spread by it basically does not have much moisture.

As of March, 2024, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of the new M7 was 164,000 vehicles, and the cumulative insured amount was 152,000 vehicles, which is equivalent to the fact that Cyrus still holds an order of about 10,000 vehicles without production and delivery. This digital trend is also in line with the industry law of "stacking orders as soon as new products are released, and then with the improvement of production capacity, undelivered orders gradually decrease and turn into no delivery cycle".

As for the sales volume of M9, up to now, the official has only released two figures: First, it sold 5,446 units in February.(wholesale sales); Second, the delivery volume in March was 6,243 units.(Retail sales). The number that can be found from the public insurance database is that in February and March of this year, the number of insurance coverage of 1324 vehicles and 6429 vehicles was realized by the customer M9, which is basically consistent with the official marketing figures.

Image from: Snowball user "Castle Peak Hermit"

Based on the reliable official fixed figures, we can fit and calculate the fixed growth rate of M9, which can be converted into the monthly sales expectation of M9. The snowball user "Castle Peak Hermit" has calculated that the new M9 will increase by about 393 vehicles/day, which translates to 11,800 vehicles in 30 days.

As the earliest fixed data of a new car, its fixed and subsequent sales will further slow down with the passage of time.(The number of users who have no brains to buy this product is gradually exhausted)It is optimistically estimated that the annual sales volume of M9 will be 80,000 ~ 90,000 vehicles.(Average daily sales volume is 250+)The neutral forecast is that the annual sales volume of M9 will be 60,000 ~ 70,000 vehicles.(The average daily sales volume is about 200), pessimistic forecast M9 annual sales of 50000 vehicles.(The average daily sales volume is less than 150).

With reference to its guide price of 469,800 yuan to 569,800 yuan, it is a high probability event that the gross profit space of M9 after scale is close to 30%. According to the median price of 520,000 yuan and the wholesale sales of 60,000 ~ 70,000 vehicles in the whole year, M9 can contribute about 10 billion gross profit for Celeste, which is enough to support its fight in the mainstream market and can also be converted into a solid net profit in the final financial performance.

Miaotou once wrote another deep case in early 2023, "Building a new car force, is it dead?" ",in-depth analysis of the reasons for Wei Lai’s worst development in" Wei Xiaoli "-Weilai’s luxury brands and products have basically not sunk into the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. More than half of the high-end "cakes" that have been paved by many rounds of marketing and branding are "unable to eat".

Especially for the new domestic forces, once the order support in the luxury market is insufficient, it is impossible toIn order to maintain its healthy operation at the sales end with higher gross profit, then the subsequent scale expansion and growth of new forces must "borrow money" from institutions and markets at a much greater cost, and the probability of failure increases sharply.

Most new power brands are younger, more receptive to technology brands, more receptive to green changes, and more complete infrastructure for new energy use in first-tier and new first-tier cities. When the "upstart" high-value consumers in this market area are gradually exhausted, and the new forces want to grow or maintain their own sales, they can only "test" down, and eventually they are forced to enter the mainstream market, but they are caught in a further decline.

And this is also the magic of Cyrus. Last year, the new M7 failed to achieve a luxury brand, and it stopped at this year’s M9, and it was an unprecedented success.

This can be seen from the regional comparison of insurance data of M7 and M9. Compared with M7 in the mainstream market, the proportion of M9 in new first-tier and second-tier cities is almost the same. In the past, the proportion of insurance in the third, fourth and fifth-tier cities, which was the most difficult for independent brands to enter, also exceeded 20%, far exceeding the ideal L9 with a slightly lower price, but with some similarities in product positioning.

Combining all kinds of external information at present, Miaotou judges the success of M9, with a high probability because it has successfully captured the opportunity of the domestic "old money" user group market.

From: soochow securities

According to the 2023 China Private Wealth Report, in 2023, 51% of the high-net-worth individuals in China were over 40 years old. It is an important group of people who consume luxury cars in China, but in the past, they were conservative in the choice of models (basically not considering new energy), and they also cared very much about the brands of car companies (basically only considering BBA).

Compared with the first-and second-tier cities with faster city pace, more hard-working people and more "upstarts" with high net worth, the proportion of "old money" users in the third, fourth and fifth-tier cities is definitely much higher than 51%.In other words, if the luxury models of the high-end models of the new forces can obtain continuous sales support in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, and the proportion of total sales continues to be high, it can basically be confirmed that they have captured the "old money" market.

The "sudden" success of M9 in the world is obviously inseparable from Huawei’s brand influence.Thanks to Huawei’s past operation of consumer electronic products such as mobile phones for people over 40 years old, it has established a strong brand influence and technical endorsement, and superimposed on the product side, M9 accurately grasped the demand of successful people for luxury cars, and finally realized the double breakthrough of "region+people".

Finally: talk about performance expectations and industry prospects.

First of all, from the perspective of production capacity, there are currently three factories in Celestial. At the end of last year, the production capacity of No.1 Factory and No.2 Factory has approached saturation (producing new M7), and the total production capacity of these two factories is roughly 30,000 to 35,000 vehicles per month. At present, No.3 Plant is mainly used for M9 production, and its monthly production capacity is close to 7,000, so it is not a big problem to upgrade to over 10,000 units in the next quarter.

Referring to our multiple judgments based on Celestial products, market structure and demand, the goal of the mainstream product "M5+M7" is to run as full as possible.(including price reduction, etc.)The annual sales target is 300,000 ~ 350,000, the net profit is estimated to be 0 ~ 3%, and the comprehensive break-even point will not appear until at least the end of the third quarter.(In the second quarter, the probability of average profit of M5 and M7 cars is negative.).

The annual sales volume of "M9" is optimistic that the annual sales volume of M9 will be 80,000-90,000, neutral that it will be 60,000-70,000, and pessimistic that it will be around 50,000. The gross profit of a single product is expected to hit more than 25%, and the net profit is not easy to predict at present, so it needs to be calculated in combination with the follow-up sales volume and cost. However, it should be a high probability event that the net profit turns positive during the year.

To sum up, it is a high probability that the performance of Cyrus 2024 will continue to improve, including a substantial increase in revenue and a possible "turnaround" in the fourth quarter. Sellers’ performance with relatively high certainty deserves special attention and layout.

Let’s finally discuss Huawei, because in Miaotou’s view, the impact of the "counterattack" achieved by M9 on the entire automobile industry is more significant than that of Cyrus.

As early as the end of last year, in BYD’s deep case "Huawei is the biggest threat to BYD", we specifically pointed out-Huawei has a tradition of innovation based on user needs and user experience. In cooperation with Huawei, other independent auto companies are expected to pull China’s auto industry into the intelligent stage where BYD is not very good at it.

Obviously, we still underestimated the "help" of Huawei brand in building high-end automobile products.(It is also because M5 and M7 were too unsuccessful at that time, and now it seems to be the product itself.). As a manufacturer that mainly produced minivans and compact passenger cars in the past, Celeste has gradually blossomed in the mainstream market and luxury market, and Huawei’s role is beyond words.

Compared with other new forces "starting from scratch", we can only impress users through one product, and accumulate brand potential energy in a very long period through word of mouth after use; In-depth cooperation with Huawei, directly joining "HarmonyOS Zhixing", enjoying Huawei’s package of intelligent solutions, and finally being able to export through Huawei’s marketing methods and sales network, will probably become an opportunity for many "lost car companies" to reverse their entry into the luxury market.

At the upcoming Beijing Auto Show this week, the brand-new luxury car enjoyment S9 jointly built by Huawei and BAIC is about to usher in its debut; Last week, it was also reported that Huawei executives visited Guangzhou Automobile Group, and the two sides will officially announce cooperation during the Beijing Auto Show.

If Huawei can continue its impact on the luxury market monopolized by domestic joint ventures with the sample of M9, this new energy market, which was first educated by new forces such as Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, may eventually be picked by Huawei.

In the long run, if other car companies want to "immunize" Huawei’s attacks, there are only two ways to go, or their own scale is strong enough, and they have enough R&D and innovation capabilities and funds to keep up with innovation; Either join Huawei’s system, and eventually, with the help of more and more car companies, Huawei’s "snowball" will be rolled into the new energy "Bosch" it aims at, or it will become the new "soul" of China’s auto industry.

Whether auto companies like it or not, Huawei’s increasingly in-depth "spoiler" is pushing the new energy reform of China auto industry to a new level.

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safe

complete

Prevention of drowning in winter

Don’t forget safety when you go out to play ~

Although the present has entered the deep winter.

But the string of drowning prevention still cannot be relaxed!

Because of drowning, there is no season!

The following cases should be taken as a warning.

But don’t know

On December 24, 2023, in Yuncheng, Shanxi, a boy accidentally fell into the park lake while playing on ice. After struggling in the cold lake for a while, he had no strength. At the critical moment, Yao Longnian, a good-hearted man, broke the ice and rescued the boy with his friends.

On December 23, 2023, a 6-year-old boy accidentally fell into an ice hole while playing by a pond near his home in Jining, Shandong Province. The situation was critical. After hearing the noise, the good-hearted people passing by rushed to rescue the boy ashore.

On December 16th, 2023, a 7-year-old boy’s dice fell into a canal in Jingmen City, Hubei Province, and he went into the water to fish. As a result, he slipped into a canal with a water depth of three or four meters and drowned. It happened that Dai Su Heng, who was running, saw it and was rescued by him. Then Li Xin, the owner of the nearby noodle restaurant, became a child to do cardiopulmonary resuscitation and successfully woke him up …

On November 26th, 2023, in Lanpo Lake, Kuancheng District, Changchun City, Jilin Province, a boy suddenly fell into the ice water that had not been completely frozen while playing on the ice! At a critical juncture, an enthusiastic man jumped into the ice hole regardless of the cold weather and pushed the boy onto the ice. Finally, with the help of other enthusiastic people, both the boy and the man who saved the life successfully escaped from danger.

This case is also reminding us all that drowning prevention in winter cannot be relaxed!

These six tips let children remember-

1. Don’t play near the waters marked "No Swimming".

2. Don’t walk, play, skate or pick up things on the ice in dangerous waters such as ponds and reservoirs.

3. If you find your friends playing on the ice, you should remind and dissuade them in time. If the dissuasion fails, you should immediately tell your teacher or family.

4. If you want to skate, you should go to a regular skating place accompanied by an adult, and you can’t leave the adult’s monitoring sight all the time.

When you go out, you should tell your parents where to go, with whom and when to come back. It is strictly forbidden to invite you out to play privately.

6. Improve safety awareness, and immediately avoid or report to parents, teachers or the police when unsafe factors or dangerous situations are found.

About drowning prevention,

This knowledge is also going to tell children-

Safety is no small matter!

May the children get through it.

A safe and happy holiday!

Original title: "Everyone, there is no" safe season "for drowning prevention, and winter can’t be careless! 》

Read the original text